Monday, December 23, 2013

Watchdog Week 16 - Gettin' Funky!

In one of the more questionable moves in the league this year, Coach Madden for the Fatties emailed Coach Piccione on Sunday morning and suggested they turn the Enchilada Bowl into a sort of "winner take all" (other than league dues).  Coach Piccione, to his credit, said "I don't like our matchups, but what the hey."  When you have Peyton Manning, the first player in NFL history to throw for 50+ TDs and 5000+ yards in the same season, you can take these kinds of chances.  How big was Manning's season?  He beat the second-best QB (in fantasy points) by 88 points.  He beat the league average QB by 201 points.  He beat the average top-10 QB by 136 points.  He's good, I'm saying.  Perhaps the strangest stat I've see, though, is that it looks like Manning will finish second in the league in Quarterback Rating.  Betcha can't tell me who is currently ranked first!  For comparison, last year Drew Brees was the #1 ranked fantasy QB, finishing 70 points better than ... #12 QB Matthew Stafford.  In 2011, it was Rodgers finishing 70 points better than #5 Cam Newton.  In 2010 it was Brady finishing 75 points better than #11 Matt Schaub.  Manning is good, I'm saying again (as long as you have the right Manning). 

So were the Funky Dogs just a one-trick pony?  If you take away Manning and insert 5th-ranked QB Andy Dalton (359 points), they still finish third in the league in total points, so no, the Watchdog has been unfair in saying that in the past.  You could argue that trading a #1 pick for Marshawn Lynch was what put them over the top.  But you could also suggest that Bobby Rainey  and his 11.9 PPG since being inserted into the starting lineup, along with Fragile Fred Jackson and Ryan Mathews, who just missed having his 6th 100-yard game of the last ten games yesterday (99 yards and a TD) made the trade a shade overpaid.  'Nuff said.  I ask again, has Ryan Matthews become a keeper?  He was a first round pick this year.  Over the last 6 weeks he's averaged a little more than... Marshawn Lynch. 

OK, you say, so the Funky Dogs had a top QB and a raft of RBs, but what about WRs?  Well, they have AJ Green, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb got hurt in week 6 and still hasn't come back, Jarrett Boykin has been an able replacement here and there.  Greg Olsen has been solid (8th best TE in total points), Gostkowski they got included in the Lynch trade - he was only the #1 kicker in the league.  And they ended up with three of the top six defenses in the league after picking up the Rams for this game (beating out the STDs claim for them by just over an hour).  Parenthetically, all three Ds were in double-digits.

So congratulations to the Paganos, Dundies, Marky Marks or the Funky Dogs!  Whatever else you want to call them, you can call them Enchilada Champs! 

By the way, what a strange effect this flexible roster rule has had on the "special teams" of K and D.  The top 10 Ds were owned by 5 teams.  At least six of those teams were available on waivers at some point, including the 5th place Rams, who were dropped and added a record 27 times this season.  Among Kickers, there was no such cornering of the market - the reverse, if anything, with two of the top 14 kickers finishing the year as free agents.  An amazing 9 of the top 14 kickers were claimed off waivers at least once during the season, including #1 Gostkowski, #3 Novak (several times), #5, 6, 8 9, 10, 11, 13 and 14, with Suisham and Succop getting the most add/drops, though not nearly as many as Rams D. 

Among TEs, only one of the top 10 finished the year as a free agent, Martellus Bennett, but 5 more of the next 10 also did, which I mention mostly because Natural Disaster was done in partially by cutting #7 TE Charles Clay in favor of a guy who didn't finish the year in the top 30. 

But I regress. 

So the Fatties give up their #1 and #3 picks for next year to get McCoy and Charles, they gamble away any profit they might have made by coming in second and they lose by 61.  Not sure what Matthew Stafford was doing against the Giants yesterday, but it sure didn't look like quarterbacking.  DeSean Jackson had another one of those classic games where his team puts up 54 and he ends up with 3 fantasy points, or one more than TE Zach Hurts.  If only they could've carried over some of the 200-odd points they put up last week...  On the plus side, Eddie Lacy looks like a keeper, and for that matter, McCoy at $48 might be too.  It is hard when you manage your team brilliantly for 15 weeks, only to be undone in the end, hoisted, as they say by your own petard. 

The Constipation Bowl is not over until the fat lady sings, with STDs holding a 17-point lead on the Gumpsters, with only the Gumpsters' SF D still active.  For the 14th time this season, STDs missed which QB to put in, picking Cousins over Roofiesberger, costing them 11 points in the process.  They were once again done in by their RBs as well, switching Joique Bell out for the Vacator, at a cost of another 17 points.  The Gumpsters may regret going with Jason Witten (#10, 1 point) over Julius Thomas (#4, 13 points) at TE, Alex Smith (10 points) over Luck (15 points).  Obviously if they'd started NE D and their 27, this one would be wrapped up now, but hard to say that was the wrong choice based on matchups.  SF and NE D have almost identical PPG on the season and only one of them was facing a team vying for a playoff spot this week.  But Luck and Thomas - yeah, that would be another 17 points right there. 

And while the Toilet Bowl is not officially over, it would take a Festivus Miracle to save I/T's season and see them upend Dale's Doormats.  They currently trail by 50 with only Kaepernick still to play tonight.  For what it's worth, they left exactly 2 points on the bench, not counting Phil Rivers' 14.  The Doormats correctly started Foles, though he got outscored by Dalton by 17 this week.  DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant showed up in a big way (35 points between them), as did Antonio Brown. 

Among the strange stats this season, you have Pierre Garcon leading the NFL in receptions with 107, Josh Gordon missing two games due to suspension and still leading in yards receiving with 1564, you have the Broncos with four players with 60+ receptions and 10+ TD catches while the 12-3 Seahawks had no players reach either number.  You had the Enchilada Winner keep two players - Stevan Ridley who finished 30th among RBs in PPG, and Randall Cobb who finished 71st in WR total points scored after his injury.  The #1 and #2 fantasy WRs were both traded during the season, but only one was traded for a future draft pick.  You had the worst team in the last 5 fantasy seasons still playing on the last day of the playoffs.  You have the #1 and tied for #2 most INTs in the NFL both playing in the Meadowlands, bringing back cries that Charlie Ward is once again the best QB in New York.  One other note on Eli - the last two guys to throw for more INTs in a single season were - Brett Favre and Peyton Manning!  You have Nick Foles with a 25:2 TD:INT ratio (on the other end of the Eli Scale).  The last two guys to come close to those kinds of numbers?  Josh Freeman and David Garrard!  Remember, Freeman had 25:6 as a second-year QB.  And Garrard had 18:3 back in '07 for the Jags.  OK, really Brady had 36:4 back in '10, but what fun is that?  The best INT% ever for a single season is the immortal Damon Huard, who had 11 TD and 1 INT in 2006.  Tied with him is the immortal Josh McCown for this year's Bears (13:1).  The only other guy with less than 1% INT% in a season was Steve "Don't Pay the Ferryman" DeBerg for the 1990 Chefs (23:4 ratio).  Also appearing in the top 10 ever INT% for a season are Alex Smith, Steve Bartkowski, Neil O'Donnell (for the '98 Bengals), Jason Campbell, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia and Seneca Wallace.  Brady, Rodgers and O'Donnell are the only guys to appear in the top 30 for more than one season. 

No comments: