Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Watchdog - 7/11

As we all know, Reinsurance is really just legalized gambling. And fantasy football is just plain gambling. I was listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN this morning and they were talking with Tiger Woods. Two things he said struck me as profound:

Mike: To save someone's life, you had to make a three-foot putt but you couldn't take it, who are you handing the putter to?

Tiger: That's not happening.

Mike: Do you believe in the golf gods?

Tiger: Kind of.

Mike: When someone tells me I'm playing really well, I want to hit them in the head with my driver because I know the golf gods are going to get me.

Tiger: That's your problem. You should never stop trying to improve.

Was Tiger intending to be deep? I don't think so. I think he was trying to be funny. Did he know he was going to be in the Watchdog this week? I think if the thought was ever going to cross his mind, it had to be while uttering these words.

So how much do we know about fantasy football? I don't know much (as evidenced by my team's performance thank you very much), but I know this:

Before the season, the top 10 QBs were, in order: NE, IND, DAL, NO, PHI, CLE, PIT, ARI, CIN and NYJ. Currently they are: SD (pre-season 20th), DAL, GB (21st), NO, DEN (18th), ARI, CHI (24th), NYJ, HOU (15th), and SF (19th). So four of the pre-season top 14 are currently ranked in the top 10.

Before the season, the top 10 RBs were, in order: Tomlinson, Westbrook, A Peterson, S Jackson, Lynch, Gore, Barber, L Johnson, Portis and Addai. Currently, the top 10 RBs are Portis, Barber, Bush (20th), Gore, Forte (30th), A Peterson, Jackson, Turner (18th), Brown (24th) and Jacobs (21st). So the top 2 are rated 14th and 20th respectively and 5 of the top 10 are different now.

Before the season, the top 10 WRs were, in order: Moss, Owens, Edwards, Fitzgerald, Wayne, A Johnson, Coston, S Smith, Holt, and Houshmandzadeh. Currently they are: Jennings (17th), Fitzgerald, Cal Johnson (14th), Santana Moss (28th), B Marshall (15th), A Johnson, Roddy White (27th), Lee Evans (23rd), Wayne, and Berrian (26th). So three of the top 10 WRs and none of the top three are currently in the top 10. Owens is 11th, Moss is 18th and Edwards is 30th.

Tight Ends were slightly more predictable, at least at the top: Pre-season rankings were: Witten, Cooley, Gates, Winslow, Gonzalez, Shockey, V Davis, Clark, Heap and Miller. Current rankings are: Witten, Gates, Daniels (11th), Cooley, Olsen (12th), Gonzalez, Shiancoe (31st), Scheffler (21st), Fasano (30th), and Carlson (18th). So again 5 of the pre-season top 10, but all the top 5.

Kickers: Gostkowski, Vinatieri, Folk, Dawson, Graham, Brown, Bironas, Crosby, Kaeding, Rackers. Current rankings: Longwell (17th), Elam (25th), Carney (NYG - 32nd), Gould (22nd), Nedney (24th), Bryant (23rd), Akers (18th), Kasay (12th), Prater (30th), Crosby (8th). So exactly one of the pre-season top 10 is currently in the top 10 - seemingly by accident. And in fact, only 2 of the pre-season top 16! Who picked that pre-season ranking, the Watchdog?

Defenses: MIN, DAL, SD, CHI, SEA, PIT, IND, JAX, WAS and PHI. Current rankings are: TB (13th), PHI, GB (20th), TEN (12th), CHI, PIT, BAL (16th), NYG (17th), NYJ (28th), and CAR (22nd). So three of the pre-season top 10 are currently ranked in the top 10. MIN is 11, DAL is 25th, SD is 14th.

So at the halfway point, what team did the best job of drafting? Let's look at it in order of the draft picks:

Red Bandits: GB QB in the 2nd round was a good pick, Carolina Kickers for $1 and Jets D in round 12 were good. Tomlinson, Willie Parker, Marques Colston and Wes Welker were underwhelming.

Fatties: Atl QB in round 9 was good, Gore for $50 was good, Turner in R1 was very good, Wayne for $23 was good. Fasano in R11 was very good. Dal kickers for $5 was good and GB D in R6 was very good. Cle QB ($10) was not good. Overall, it's probably that QB position that's killing the Fatties. Other than that, they had a great draft, and as good as Matt Ryan has looked, he's still just a rookie QB.

Wombats: Jets QB $11 and Den QB R3 are very good. None of their RBs drafted have looked good. Fitzgerald, Marshall, and Steve Smith have all been good to great. Crosby has been OK at K, and Carolina D has been good. Their recent trade for MJD will improve their chances, but it's hard to win with half a running back. Spending auction money on four WRs, even four good ones, is a tough proposition, as only two can play.

Pep & Cheez: Carolina and Seattle QBs are,well they're not good (OK, don't sell them short, they're tremenous slouches). S Jackson ($66) has been very good. J Jones (R3) looked good early. Burress ($15) has been OK, the rest of the WRs (J Walker, D Hester and T Ginn) not so much. Winslow has looked good even if he's a cement-head. Kickers (CIN & WAS) have been weak, and Ds (NE and CIN) have been bad.

E-Head: Indy QB ($40) have disappointed, Slaton (R6) has been very good (11th RB currently), Moss ($20) has disappointed but Andre Johnson ($23) has not. Keller (R5) has shown signs of being good. Kickers and Ds have not impressed. Overall, missed on two of the three the big ticket guys, but hit on a couple of long-shots.

Mavs: NE QB ($28) lasted 8 plays, Larry Johnson has been surprisingly good when he hasn't been assaulting anyone, Jonathan Stewart (R2) has been very good. Housh, Coles and Bowe have been pretty good. O Daniels (R4) has been great. Bironas and CHI D ($2) have been good. If Cassel continues to improve, the Mavs will be a team to beat. Currently (5-2) they rank first in "Team Defense", otherwise known as blind-ass-luck, or points against.

BYOB had two fair picks at QB (PHI and PIT for $15 each - OK they're each good, but together they're only fair) and were able to parlay one of those into Thomas Jones. Cal Johnson has been decent, despite having the best Polish QB since Steve Bartkowski throwing to him. B Edwards has been awful, except againt the Giants, but Santana Moss (R3) has been excellent. Cooley and Witten are both top 4, Longwell and Baltimore D are also excellent picks. Trading next year's #1 for Barber solidifies BYOB's position as a top seed in this year's Enchilada.

Turd spent $23 total on Houston and Washington QBs, and they look OK - Schaub has looked very good lately. McGahee ($27), Graham ($25) and Jacobs (R1) have been good to very good. Berrian and Evans have been surprisingly good. Heap (R2) has disappointed. Carney has been a revelation and NYG D has been very good at times. Missed with S Young (a strange keeper) and IND Kicker (particularly since they had the same bye as the Giants K). Overall, a good draft, that could be a playoff team if Schaub or Campbell picks it up.

Dale: Cin QB ($16) has been awful then hurt, leaving an Ivy League guy in there. Eli has been very good against weak opponents so far. Lynch, Lewis and LenDale White have been good. Boldin was doing well til he lost his face in the Jets' game. Jennings (R1) has been outstanding. Scheffler (R8) has been a find. Elam for $1 and TEN D (R9) have been excellent picks. Other than QB and RB, Dale has a top 10 player at every position. Unfortunately, those are kind of important positions.

Semi-R: ARI QB ($16) has been fantastic, Westbrook ($63) has not. Ronnie Brown (R2), Fragile Fred (R3) and Derrick Ward (R9) have been good picks. WRs have all disappointed. Gates ($11) and Olsen R7 have both been excellent. Den K (R12) has been great. No D (SD $8 and Den R11). Trading a TE for a WR might be enough to get them to the Enchilada Bowl. Can't give any leniency for Westbrook getting hurt because he always gets hurt and they did spend $63 for a back who's 5'10" 203 pounds and 29 years old.

Killer Ds: Dal QB ($26) was good until Romo got hurt; Barber $40 was good, Grant ($20) has shown signs lately but disappointed. Chris Johnson (R1) has been good, but shares the ball too much. Crotchery and A Gonzalez have disappointed, but DeSean Jackson (R5) has been very good. Dallas Clark has stunk. Bryant (R9) has been OK at K and Dal and IND D have both been awful. Overall, the WR and TE picks sunk an otherwise decent (but overrated) team.

Gump: Brees ($30) and Rivers (R3) have been excellent. Peterson ($20) too. McFadden ($33) Dunn (R6) and L Washington (R6) have taken up space. Harrison, Ward, and Mason lead a cadre of old, slow receivers. Shockey ($10) has been picked up and cut this year more times in one season than any player in fantasy football history (4,251 times as of last Sunday). A trade of either Brees or Rivers for a WR and/or a back should make Gump a playoff team. They too may regret passing on the Killer D's firesale.

Brokerage: Det QB (R4) and SF QB (R8) were never going to get it done. Addai ($51) has been hurt. MJD ($31) has been OK. Forte (R2) and Sproles (R5) were excellent and very good respectively. Holmes and Chambers were solid but unspectacular picks (R1 and R3). Gonzalez and Shiancoe (R11) were excellent picks, but they didn't keep Shiancoe. They made an excellent trade in picking up Broncos QB for MJD. With Ricky Williams, Forte and Addai, they may have enough to make the Enchilada Bowl now.

And picking last in the draft, the defending champion Sprockets: Stl QB and Jax QB for $7 each have been flat-out awful. Portis ($33) a bargain. Trading Thomas Jones (R1) for PIT QB could save their season and get them back into the playoffs. Edge (R2) and McAlister (R5) were solid picks. Holt ($16) has been bad, but Roddy White (R3) and TO ($20) have been very good. J Brown ($1), Gould (R8) and Pit D ($4) have been very good. I thought Garrard would have been better, but they picked up a very good QB and a potential keeper in Felix Jones in trades. With Reggie Bush hurt, McAllister suddenly becomes relevant again.

So given the rankings' accuracy from pre-season, I'll give you this ranking of the teams' overall drafts at the half-way pole:

1) BYOB and Semi-R tied (I'm as surprised as anyone to find the Draft Dominator at the top of the draft - two good QBs, two good WRs, two good TEs, good K & D for BYOB; Semi-R's WRs prevent them from being #1 by themselves, even with overspending for Westbrook; hit on cheap guys well - ARI QB for $16, and got good starters from rounds 2, 7, 9, 11 and 12)
3) Mavs and Sprockets tied (Portis for $33, White in R3, TO, K & D all excellent picks for Sprockets. Used depth at RB to address QB miss; Mavs hit with LJ and Stewart, got pretty good WR, very good TE, K and D; Cassel compares very well with Brady's first season. Watch out.)
5) Dale's Doormats (other than QB, they've been solid to very good at every position)
6) Fatties (Gore, Turner, Wayne, K and D were all good, but missing on Cle QB hurt)
7) Turd and Ds tied - Turd got good depth at RB, hit on two WR without spending, and got great "special teams". QB keeps them from being higher - right now. Ds missed on Grant and three of four WRs, and all of TE, K and D.
9) Wombats (two good QBs for cheap, over-drafted WRs, but hit on all, trades for RBs will make season)
10) Brokerage (no good QBs, Addai hurt and MJD OK, Forte has been great)
11) Bandits (not bad for only making half the draft - Tomlinson needed to be much better for the price)
12) E-Head (Slaton and A Johnson make up for Manning and Moss' disappointing season, but not the mass dumping of early draft picks)
13) Gump (two good QBs and one good RB, but missed on everything else)
14) Pep & Cheez (no good QB, best player is very good, but for $66 he should be, no one else has impressed)

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Watchdog - Week of the Beast (666)

In the immortal words of Saint Mel, the Lord has given me this Fifteen (crash) - Ten Commandments!

"And the meek shall inherit the earth" Gospel According to St Matthew 5:5- The Mighty E-Head. Suddenly it seems that Peyton had not 15 commandments, but 2 knee surgeries. Is that a miracle? Where did the second surgery come from? Is that like Jesus feeding 5000 with a few fish and a loaf of bread? In any case, going against the #1 defense in the league and watching their top two RBs get injured, the Colts pasted the Ravens and suddenly, the E-Head don't seem quite so meek.

"Be thou either hot or cold, the lukewarm I shall spit out of my mouth" - John the Revelator 3:15 - we have 9 teams out of 14 with 3 losses out of 6 games. It doesn't get any more tepid than that! That said, there are those that run hot and cold (Dale's Doormats) and end up 3-3, and those than run extremely cold, followed by extremely hot (Hundering Turd follows up a 3 game losing streak to start the season with a 3 game winning streak. Or you have Gumpsters, Fatties, Pep & Cheezes, Wombats & Bandits who are all on 1 game winning or losing streaks.

"Pride goes before destruction" - Proverbs 16:18. Put another way by none other than Rockies manager Clint Hurdle: "There are two kinds of people in this game, those who have been humbled and those who are about to be." On the prideful side, you have the Mavs ripping off their fourth straight win. On the humbling side, they are 13th in the league in points scored, winning this week 55-49. As Steve Martin once said, "What's the key to a joke timing."

"I have let you see it, but you will not cross over there" - Deuteronomy 34:3-4. For the Killer Ds, who wandered like Moses in the desert for 40 years, then unexpectedly tied for high points for the week and finally started showing the way to the Promised Land, only to have it fall apart on Tony Romo's pinkie finger. I know, "so sad, too bad." But the pain! One game out of a playoff spot and I fear that's as close as the Ds will get.

"And David put his hand in his bag, and took thence a stone, and slang it, and smote the Philistine in his forehead; and the stone sank into his forehead, and he fell upon his face to the earth." 1 Samuel 17:49 - And thus was the last undefeated team put to the ground, much like the mighty G-men last night, slain by the upstart Believelanders. Parenthetically, this is one of my favorite parts of "Hoosiers" as well. The quote breaks down a little in this case because Semi-R is still the only team with better than a 4-2 record and has a 2-game lead on the entire rest of the Canes Division. But with Westbrook and now Fragile Fred down with injuries, and Isaac "the reverend" Bruce and Ocho Stinko at WR, I still say they've over-performed the first 6 weeks.

...And Saint Attila raised the hand grenade up on high, saying, "O Lord, bless this Thy hand grenade that with it Thou mayest blow Thine enemies to tiny bits, in Thy mercy." And the Lord did grin and the people did feast upon the lambs and sloths and carp and anchovies and orangutans and breakfast cereals, and fruit bats and large chu... [At this point, the friar is urged by Brother Maynard to "skip a bit, brother"]... Book of Armaments 2:9-21

And so it shall come to pass that the Mighty E-Head, Red Bandits, BYOB, Semi-R, Gumpsters and Doormats shall smite their enemies and therefore they shall maketh the Enchilda Bowl and there shall be much rejoicing. And for the rest, there shall be much weeping and gnashing of teeth. Because really, what else can one gnash? Or gnosh for that matter. Hmm... is it time for a smackerel of something?

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Watchdog - Week Jive Alive!

In honor of our first tie of the season, we'll do a little shuckin' and jivin' with the good folks from Airplane!

Red Bandits & Wombats continue the mediocrity, running their records to 2-2-1:
Coach Rom: Shit man, that honky mus' be messin' my old lady... got to be runnin' cold upside down his head. You know?
Coach Sharp: Hey home, I can dig it. You know he ain't gonna lay no mo' big rap up on you man.
Coach Rom: I say hey sky, s'other s'ay I wan say?
Coach Sharp: UH...
Coach Rom: Pray to J I get the same ol' same ol'.
Coach Sharp: Eh. Yo knock yourself a pro slick, gray matter live performas down now take TCB'in man.
Coach Rom: Hey, you know what they say... See a broad, to get that booty yak 'em.
Coach Rom, Coach Sharp: Leg 'er down 'n smack 'em yak 'em
Coach Rom: Cold got to be. You know? Shiiiiit.

For the Killer D's, at 1-4, it can only be the following exchange:


Coach Morrison: Coach Ingrey, you're a co-owner of this crew. Can you face some unpleasant facts?


Coach Ingrey: No.





Mighty E-Head gets off the Schnied in a big way!
Coach Eickhorst: Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.


For Semi-R, who ran their record to 5-0, the only team in the league with better than a 3-2 record, the hard part becomes how to land this thing:

Coach King: There's no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you'll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?






I was struggling with who to give this one to, but I think it has to be the Mavs, featuring Jonathan Stewart:
Watchdog: Would you like something to read?
Coach Lucking: Do you have anything light?
Watchdog: How about this leaflet, "Famous Jewish Sports Legends?"

For the defending champion Sprockets, who got high points for the week, it has to be this:
Coach Feldman: My orders came through. My squadron ships out tomorrow. We're bombing the storage depots at Daiquiri at 1800 hours. We're coming in from the north, below their radar.
Coach Fisher: When will you be back?
Coach Feldman: I can't tell you that. It's classified.


Team Brokerage's torture continues with the choice between Kitna and JTO. I suggest they go with the lasagna:
Coach Lubert: What was it we had for dinner tonight?
Coach Stier: Well, we had a choice of steak or fish.
Coach Lubert: Yes, yes, I remember, I had lasagna.

For Dale's Doormats, the streak continues in which they either get high score for the week or lose to an inferior team (sorry Kevin...) and as is many times the case with a top-notch athlete such as Coach Dale, it comes down to simple execution:
Coach Dale: I've got to concentrate... [his thoughts echo]
Coach Dale: concentrate... concentrate... I've got to concentrate... concentrate... concentrate... Hello?... hello... hello... Echo... echo... echo... Pinch hitting for Pedro Borbon... Manny Mota... Mota... Mota...
And for the Fatties, who once again are in the top five in the league in scoring for the week and take an "L" and left 32 points on the bench win DeAngelo Williams:
Coach Flasinski: Johnny, what can you make out of this? [Hands him the weather briefing]
Coach Madden: This? Why, I can make a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl...
And last but surely not least, for those teams (Semi-R and Mighty E) who STILL have not paid their dues, you will risk getting evicted from the league for next season.
Delinquint Coaches: Surely you can't be serious.
Watchdog: well, you know....

Friday, October 3, 2008

Watchdog - May the Fours Be With You













Long, long ago in a football stadium far, far away….



Fantasy Wars IV – A New Hope

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. On the waiver wire, Team Gump “won” Lance Moore with a bid of $50. Team Turd “won” LeRon McLain with a bid of $41. And Pep & Cheez won Bobby Engram with a bid of $10. So why does the one guy I’ve heard of go for the least money and why is he the only one no one else bid for?

By the way, does anyone else ever look at Carrie Fischer now and go “Hey wait? Was she supposed to be hot at one time?” No, me neither…. Speaking of people that were supposed to be hot at one time, the Killer Ds fall to 1-3, getting waxed by the Doormats. Once again, they have underestimated the power of the Dark Side, leaving Ryan Grant and his weak hamstring in and putting young Jedi Chris “Skywalker” Johnson on the bench – a 17 point swing in a 14 point game. And for the third time in four weeks the Evil Empire, er, Dale’s Doormats, crushes all opposition. So if Dale is Darth Vader, I guess I’m Carrie Fischer in this analogy? Not sure I was headed there when I started this paragraph… Parenthetically, you can purchase the following on the Star Wars official website for a mere $54.99 (not to be confused with the R2-D2 Shampoo Bottle). It’s “perfect for Halloween Parties and “Other Special Occasions”. Nudge nudge, wink wink!








I don’t know if Semi-R, now running their record to 4-0, would equate to Luke, or even Han Solo. Not with a team of Kurt Warner, who had hands down the worst 470-yard, 3-TD game in the history of the NFL, College Football and Pop Warner, Fragile Fred Taylor and three other running backs who didn’t play. No, I look at SR as more of the kind of warrior that flies under the radar screen – I’m talking about none other than Red Two, Captain Wedge Antilles. Trivia time – Wedge is the only other X-Wing fighter besides Luke to make it through all three of the original Star Wars movies. So there you go!








The Gumpsters, much like the Killer Ds, left a few points on the bench – in fact almost enough to win the game outright, had they had a bizzarro lineup in. Any one of Matt Schaub, Derrick Mason or Bucs D would have been enough to win and all three would have put them at 117 points on the week. Tough Trivia Time – I will offer $5 of the Killer D’s waiver wire money to whatever team can identify the following actor, seen here in the Empire Strikes Back:






Once you get that, you will know who the Gumpsters remind me of this week.

For the Fatties and the Turd, a 69-51 pounding inflicted by the Turd, I can only think that the following scene encapsulates the entire battle:










“I see your Schwartz is a big as mine!”
In the Canes Division, the defending Champs were looking a little old, a little ragged, running out a team that, again was outplayed by their bench. So I turn to Master Yoda, who for all his strength in the Force, utterly failed to see really any of the future from Episode One all the way through.

Nevertheless, when cornered, the little guy was not someone you’d want to mess with.









And Team Brokerage – yes, they are cunning and fierce, but ultimately doomed to be eaten by the ravenous Saarlac Beast – in this case having to start JTO or Jon Kitna for the next 9 weeks. A long, slow death to be sure…







On the other hand, we had a battle for first place in the Quakes division, with BYOB besting the Wombats. Not much to say here – 7 of the teams in the league scored between 71 and 79 and two of them played each other. Other than BYOB at 3-1 and the Mighty E-Head at 0-4, the entire division is 2-2. So to Coach Haas, mighty and strong as you are, I say you are:

(though not quite as hairy)






Coach Eickhorst:

“It’s a trap!” Well diagnosed, my friend!





And to the rest of the division, I say you are:



That’s right. I said C3PO. Angered you are? It is the dark side you feel!