Watchdog Week 12 - And Down the Stretch They Come!

Marky Marc and the Funky Dogs are hardly coming to the wire like Secretariat in the Belmont, stumbling to a 58-point effort as Marshawn Lynch sat, Peyton Manning futzed around in the cold for a mere 18 points, Steven Ridley coughed up his fourth fumble of the season and crossed the sidelines again.  While the Funky Dogs are already in the playoffs, they now hold just a 17-point lead in the Wilt Scoring Title race.  Dem dere is in need of some good vibrations! 

TBD was the team to up-end the Funky Dogs this week, dropping the leading scoring team in the league to 7-5.  Strangely, the Funky Dogs are just 4th in the league in points against, though of course they don't have to face themselves.  TBD saw Tom Brady turn again from Clark Kent (as pictured) to Superman, particularly in the second half of his battle with Peyton Manning.  After averaging 15.5 points per game in the first 8 weeks, Brady has averaged 29.6 in the last three weeks.  It is probably too late for TBD this year, though they're just one game behind Team Gump, as they're 109 point behind in the first tie-breaker.

In the continuing study of "how did he end up with HER???" we take a look today at Jabba the Hut.  Pictured here when he first met Princess Leia, it was not exactly love at first sight.  Nevertheless, it wasn't long before Leia was sporting racy gold lingerie for her big man.  Similarly, the Fatties started out the season just 1-2, but have ripped off 8 wins in their last 9 games and are coming up on the outside of the Funky Dogs, with a 110-67 shellacking of Semi-P.  They got 29 from Stafford, 27 from Jamal Charles, 21 from Eddie Lacy and 17 from Brandon Marshall.  They got just one from KC D, but had Tampa Bay D's 18 on the bench in case of emergency.  The Fatties locked up first place in the Quakes Division with a 1.5 game lead on the Turd with one game left in the regular season.

Semi-P fell to 4-8 after having won 3 of their last 4 games.  That said, they haven't scored over 90 points since week 4 and in their last 7 games have averaged under 70 points per game.  What happened to a team with two top 14 RBs as keepers for just $50?  They drafted Eli as their QB and failed to get a backup, Peterson saw a lot of this kind of coverage, David Wilson fumbled his season away then got hurt, Gronk didn't come back from injury until the fat lady was warming up in the aisles and the Texans went from AFC championship game to vying for the #1 pick, destroying Andre Johnson's season.  Hard to have more go wrong than that and not have an injury (Gronk doesn't count because we knew he was hurt before the auction).

The other team with an outside chance at the Wilt Title is Team Gump, of course.  The Gumpsters put up a 98-56 point hurtin' on the Wombats this week despite an atrocious week by Andrew Luck against the vaunted Cardinals D.  Knowshon Moreno has, in week 11, surpassed his career high for yards from scrimmage and TDs.  This kind of break-out season in a player's 5th season is extremely rare.  John Riggins is perhaps the most similar in career though he was a fullback, having run for 1005 yards in his fifth season with the Jets while averaging about 700 yards per season before that.  OJ Simpson's fourth season was his first over 1000, having topped out at 742 before that.  He ran for 1251 in his fourth and 2003 in his fifth (in just 14 games).  Thomas Jones topped 1000 yards for the first time in his sixth season (and third team).  James Brooks, the kick-returner for the Chargers in the early 80s, topped 1000 for the first time in his 6th season, his third after moving to Cincy.  And Michael Turner, who sat behind LaDanian Tomlinson for four seasons with the Chargers, ran for 1699 in his first season with Atlanta.  It's a short list, I'm saying (see what kind of tidbits you get by reading the Watchdog?).  Irregardless, the Gumpsters are just 40 points behind the Funky Dogs and have all but locked up a playoff spot in the Quakes Division.  Moreno's ankle injury is not thought to be as serious as Bubba's was in this picture.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Wombats put up less than 60 points for the third time this season, a remarkable feat for a team that has locked up a playoff spot and is half a game behind for the division championship.  The only team with more such games is I/T.  It helps that they are 1-1-1 in those three awful games this year.  They may be getting some help with the comeback of Michael Crabtree in week 13, alertly scooped up a few weeks ago.  And Aaron "Discount Daaable Check" Rodgers should be back for the Enchilada playoffs.  In their other 9 games, they're averaging just under 89 per game.   

Team Brokerage finally surrendered their season this week when they traded LeSean McCoy for Ray Rice and a draft pick.  Rice was coming off his first decent game of the season, at least in yards per carry.  But with the Eagles on a bye week and Brokerage needing to win out to have a chance they recognized they were up against the odds with STD up on the schedule.  While they missed that Hakeem Nicks was a late scratch for the Giants, they did become the latest team to take advantage of the "pick up whoever the Disasters cut" strategy in scooping up Dennis Johnson, who may well be the Texans' #1 RB the rest of the season.  His 13 carries for 74 yards against Jacksonville could indicate good things to come over the last third of the NFL season as Brokerage adjusts their sights on the Toilet Bowl.  Yes, they too are technically alive if Gump loses badly this week and they put up a monster score, but 83 points is too much to overcome.

The aforementioned Steel Trojan Divas moved a half-game up in the Cane's Division with the convincing 107-82 point win over Brokerage.  Josh Gordon led the way with 237 yards receiving and a TD.  Ravens' D looked good against the hapless Jets and Adrian Peterson looked a little 2012-ish with 146 yards and a TD against the Pack.  A win against the Gumpsters in week 13 or a loss by the Wombats (against the Fatties) and the Funky Dogs (against Brokerage), would sew up the division title. 

Dale's Doormats were eliminated from Enchilada contention this week, falling to 5-6-1 after being drubbed 90-65 by Pep and Cheez.  The Doormats got exactly one TD from any of their starting eight (and only one more from their bench).  Hard to believe, watching the Cowboys-Giants, that DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant did not score, though they did combine for 20 fantasy points.  The Doormats are a team that had scored 347 points in their first three games and averaged just over 73 per game since, and that included last week's 106-point outburst. 

Pep and Cheez finally ended their losing streak at 5 straight, a mark bested only by Semi-P's 6-game losing streak between weeks 2-7.  Danny Woodhead and Cam Newton led the charge and Keenan Allen, the 76th player and 8th WR selected in this year's NFL draft, continued his quest for 1000 yards receiving as a rookie. He would become just the 8th player in NFL history to accomplish that, along with Marques Colston, Michael Clayton, Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway and John Jefferson.  Bolden (54th pick) and Colston (252nd pick) are the only ones not to be first round draft picks when they came out of college.  (I was going for something to do with a wooden head for the picture and came up with this.  Sorry.)

We had our second tie of the year when the Camel Jockeys and Turd skated to a 68-68 score.  The sudden death shoot-out somehow failed to produce a winner.  What?  We don't have a shoot-out in this league?  Sorry.  I got this great picture from the classic atrocity Sudden Death and thought I could use it here.  Anyhooo, the Turd, with 946 points, or just under 79 per game, have of course locked up a spot in the Enchilada playoffs despite being the lowest scoring team in the Quakes Division and the 10th lowest in the league.  They have repeatedly refused trade offers saying "that won't help this sh**ty team" or something to that effect.  Interestingly, the had a streak of four straight games early this season with between 96 and 98 points.  In their last 7 games though, they've averaged just 71.7 and topped 90 just once.  They will flush or be flushed based on whether Drew Brees can play like an MVP between weeks 14 and 16 when the Saints play Carolina twice and St. Louis in between.  Interestingly, the Browns D started for the Turd, becoming just the fourth D this year to put up a zero-point effort in a non-bye week.  Figures the Browns would play so stinky for the Turd, I guess.

The Camel Jockeys improved to 4-7-1 with the tie.  Remarkably, they Camels have not scored more than 86 points in any game this year, the lowest season-high of any team.  They also are one of only two teams (with the Fatties) to score at least 61 in every game this season.  Coach Haas said simply "Well, we haven't played the Disasters yet this year."  In a lost season for Matty Ice and the worst season of CJ2.0's career in terms of yards per carry, it hardly mattered that Pierre Garcon is on his way to obliterating his best receiving yards season or that Vernon Davis is matching his best season of his career or the emergence of TY Hilton as a potential #1 fantasy receiver.  Parenthetically Julian Edelman is only 104 yards from matching the total from his first four seasons combined, and has already matched the number of TDs. 

There Is an I in I/T became the fifth team in 12 games this season to put up their high for the season against Natural Disaster.  Coach Eickhorst said afterwards: "Sure, you always take a special joy in beating those guys.  They just talk waaaay too much, if you know what I mean.  I think everyone in the league feels the same way."  Philip Rivers certainly got the message.  After averaging 17.5 points in the previous six weeks, he put up 392 yards and three TDs against the #1 defense in the NFL.  Rashard Mendenhall continued his season with 13 carries for 54 yards and a TD.   Jared Cook put up double-digit points for the first time since week one.  And Pittsburgh D put up more points against Cleveland than they had in their last three weeks combined. 

Natural Disaster has played eight games now against teams that have averaged 77 points per game against the rest of the league.  Those eight teams averaged 101 points against ND.  Interestingly, in four games against teams that averaged 93 points against the rest of the league, those four teams averaged just 78.5 against the Disasters.  ND went 2-2 in those four games and has averaged 81.4 points per game on the season, and that after giving up on Calvin Johnson and his 125 points over the last five weeks.  Their overall points against is just 8 points less than having to face the Funky Dogs every week.  Hard to believe this is the same guy that played Captain Jack Sparrow. 

Watchdog Week 11

With the NFL celebrating our Armed Forces this month after last month's breast cancer awareness, I thought I might take a week to celebrate Veterans' Day and all that with some of my favorite war movie quotes. 

Lieutenant Sobel does not hate Easy Company, Private Randleman. He just hates you. - Dick Winters, Band of Brothers.  Hard to pick just one quote from that series.  But as with fantasy football, it is sometimes hard not to think that someone up there hates you.  With two weeks to go, there are just two playoff spots up for grabs, but there are five teams fighting for them.  Team Gump was the only one of the five to lose this week, but they still hold a 52-point edge and a half game lead on Dale's Doormats, and a 67-point lead on Team Brokerage.  The Turd nosed ahead by a game, but doesn't hold the lead in points against any of the other four teams, so they cannot afford to fall into a tie. 

"Are all American officers so ill-mannered?"  "Yeah, about 99 percent."  - The Great Escape.  So what do we know?  In the Canes Division, the Wombats, Mad Dogs and Trojans are locked into the three playoff spots.  The Mad Dogs continue to open up their lead in the Wilt Scoring Race, but seem unable to edge in front of the Wombats for the division lead.  Any one of the three of them could win the division.  So despite the fact they all lost, they all sewed up a playoff spot this week.  There is no need to be so polite, you three.  Feel free to start winning any time now.

There, I have you!  You're completely dished!  Do you not know that in the service...one must always choose the lesser of two weevils.  - Master and Commander.  And over in the Quakes Division, the Fatties are not quite locked in yet, holding a 2-game lead on Gump and Brokerage with two to play, but with only an 11-point margin on Gump and 78 on Brokerage.  It is theoretically possible for them to miss the playoffs, but this odd-maker has them winning the division.  TBD stayed alive, though in sixth place in the division.  They're just one game out with two to play, but need to win both their remaining games and get as much help as the Carpathia gave to the Titanic.  So the Fatties are pretty well set, with games left against Semi-P and the Wombats, they've scored less than 85 points just once in the last 9 weeks.  They have Stafford, Charles, Lacy, Rice, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Brent Celek, KC D (who they alertly benched this week in favor of --- Tampa Bay?  And it worked with a 13-point margin!) and even Garrett Graham who put up 19 as a back-up TE this week. 

I'd say, "This is an excellent mission, sir, with an extremely valuable objective, sir, worthy of my best efforts, sir. Moreover... I feel heartfelt sorrow for the mother of Private James Ryan and am willing to lay down my life and the lives of my men - especially you, Reiben - to ease her suffering."  - Saving Private Ryan.  Dale's Doormats are a half-game out, which in many ways leaves them a game out, but if they win both, they only need Gump and Brokerage to each go 1-1 in their last two.  Brokerage plays the STDs and Funky Dogs, so they have their work cut out for them. Gump plays the Wombats and STDs, so they too may leave the door open for someone else.  Dale, meanwhile plays Pep and Cheese and There Is an I in I/T, who have apparently run up the white flag on the season, neglecting even to put in a starting Tight End who was not on a bye this week.  Not that it would have made a difference against the mighty Turd.  The Doormats are not nearly so loaded, relying on Nick Foles, Chris Ivory, Antonio Brown, Victor Cruz and Delanie Walker, along with DeMarco Murray, who was on a bye this week. 

Oh, yes, and one more thing, dear Lord, about our enemies, ignore their heathen prayers and help us blow those little bastards straight to Hell. Amen.  - We Were Soldiers.  The Turd has scored over 77 just once in the least 6 weeks (putting up 91 in week 9, a game they lost), but they are 3-3 in that time.  How are they in the playoff hunt?  Must be all that clean livin' and good prayin'.  However they did it, they have a one game lead on Gump and Brokerage with two to play.  The Turd could win the division or miss the playoffs.  They play the Camel Jockeys and Semi-P, both beatable, but both continuing to put up maximum effort.  The Camel Jockeys alertly scooped up Charles Clay, cut by Natural Disaster.  Clay has totaled 14 points in his previous four games, but went for 90 yards and a TD for his second-best game of his career.  Had the Jockeys actually had Clay in over dinged-up Vernon Davis, they'd have up-ended the Fatties, who finally gave up on Ray Rice, trading a first-round pick for Jamaal Charles, only to watch Rice go for 131 yards and a TD in the tornado-infested game against the Bears. 

Stalag 17, one of the best of the old war movies:  My wife says, "Darling, you won't believe it, but I found the most adorable baby on our doorstep and I've decided to keep it for our very own. Now you won't believe it, but it's got exactly my eyes and nose." Why does she keep saying I won't believe it? I believe it! I believe it.  If Team Gump misses the playoffs this year, they'll look back on this week and wonder how they ever lost to Semi-P.  Now Semi-P put up a legit 87, with 11 points each from Jordy Nelson, Andre Johnson, Gronk and Robbie Gould, plus 16 from Seattle D.  They even left Michael Floyd's 25 on the bench.  The Gumpster-divers would have had to pitch a perfect game to win this one.  Luck ran out of... gas.  Moreno somehow left both rushing TDs to Montee Ball in the Denver-KC tilt.  KC QB was worth 8 more than Luck.  Maybe you make that call figuring Denver was going to score a bunch and Smith would have to pass to keep up?  But it is hard to bench your best players.  And you could argue for starting Larry Fitzgerald against Jacksonville over Torrey Smith against the Bears.  Had they done both those moves, they'd have edged Semi-P.  With the second-most points in the division, they hold the tie-breaker against all the other four teams they are battling with.  But they need to win at least one and get help, or get two wins and put the matter to rest. 

Captain, it is I, Ensign Pulver, and I just threw your stinkin' palm tree overboard! Now what's all this crud about no movie tonight?  - from Mr. Roberts, when Ensign Pulver finally grows a pair, another classic.  Brokerage, after weeks of carrying four or five stiffs at QB, finally grew a pair, trading exciting rookie Andre Ellington to the Disasters for Russell Wilson, only to have the trade nearly cost them their game against the Wombats, and by extension, their entire season.  Wilson was OK, going for 22 points, but Carson Palmer put up 419 yards and 2 TDs for a 28-point game.  I'm sure Coach Lubert would have liked to have the extra 6 points going into last night's game, with the Wombats having Danny "Ooh My Groin" Amendola as the only active player left.  But DOMGA came up with only 4 points and the Wombats fell four short.  Of course, benching Giants D against Scott "JRR" Tolzien in favor of the Colts D may have been a mistake.  So Brokerage has to endure the Seahawks' bye week now and has almost no margin for error.

For the rest of us, I have only this quote from the Sands of Iwo Jima:  "Life is tough.  It's even tougher when you're stupid."  So I've been told. 

Watchdog Week 10.5 - the Smell of Fear

It's a curious thing to have as much power as the Watchdog does.  You have to use it carefully.  Or perhaps my faithful readers should take into account the fact that these comments are being made from a coach that has been fired (though kept on as GM) and owner of a team that is now 3-7.  But I regress.  With great power comes great responsibility.  For instance, one might infer from my comment last week:

"How bad is Ingram?  His one point this weekend brings his season total to 4.  Last year he managed 91 total points and his rookie year he had 81.  He's had 10 starts in nearly three seasons."

that Mark Ingram is a bum and not worth starting, having on your fantasy team, NFL team or allowing him to go to the same church as you.  But of course nothing could be further from the truth!  And any comments made by "the other Coach Ingrey" about why he benched Ingram have no bearing in fact and it is a complete coincidence that Ingram ran 14 times for 145 yards and a TD this week while on the Turd Bench.  Fortunately for the Turd, they did not trade Drew Brees (yet) this year and his 39 points was nearly enough to beat Pep and Cheez by himself.   And anyway, the Turd took their next step to lock up a playoff spot with all four teams behind them losing this week.

Or this comment from two weeks ago:

"So what does it look like when Superman loses his powers?  It was TBD who drubbed the Camel Jockeys, putting an end to their three game winning streak.  This they did despite more putrid play from Tom Brady, who, on a points per game basis is now the 31st best QB in our league, ahead of only Jacksonville."

So when Brady throws for 423 yards and 4 TDs (in week 9, the game after those "alleged comments") it's a complete coincidence and another narrow escape for the Watchdog as TBD again won anyway.  But TBD was not so fortunate this week, falling to the mighty Wombats with Brady on a bye, thus bombing their chances of bursting through to the Enchilada Bowl.

Or from the good news/bad news department of redundancy department:
"Auction purchase Dwayne Bowe was shut out for the second time this year and has just 38 points on the season, good for just 4.8 points per game, good for 72nd best in the league.  Maybe he'd better introduce himself to Alex Smith?"

So Pep and Cheez sees him get targeted 12 times in the week following that comment, but before you can say "hey, Watchdog can use his powers for good sometimes", note that Bowe was pulled over for speeding and possession earlier this week.  Maybe he was just giving the traditional Randy Moss "J" for effort?

Or can the Watchdog make an entire team disappear, like Joker made that pencil vanish?  We certainly tried to with Marky Marc and the Funky Dogs last week, and to some extent it did work - the Funky Dogs were just four points better than their second-lowest score of the season, and they needed a gift TD from AJ Green (who wasn't even trying on that last Hail Mary pass, but hey, if you're going to tip it right to him...) to even get that much.  It was enough for them to edge out the snake-bit Natural Disaster team this week, ending their ill-advised attempt at making a run at the Enchilada.  The Funky Dogs had put up 98 or more in four of their previous 5 games, though they were kind enough to leave Cincy and Carolina D on the bench in favor of Miami, as well as putting Decker in over Boykin. 

You also have the continued excellence of Calvin Johnson (now up to 85 points in the three games since being traded off the Disasters compared to 55 in the six weeks before the trade), which is not so mysterious, and of course the Wombats are ever-so-grateful that the Disasters gave up on the season and then decided not to and then re-gave up on the season.  But Riley Cooper, redneck racist and long-time mediocre wideout, had just 679 career yards receiving coming into this, his fourth year.  But ND picked him up after his 120-yard 1 TD game in week 6, then cut him after two meh games only to see him go for 241 yards and 5 TDs in the two weeks since being dropped.  That's right, the previous 8 weeks, Cooper totaled 314 yards and 2 TDs.  Of course, the Steel Trojans were alert enough to scoop up another dropped Disaster.  The STs also alertly scooped up Jordan Reed after the Disasterous cut of same just before his 134-yard 1 TD performance.  Given that they chose Charles Clay (2 points this week) over Reed (12) and lost by 2, that may have been a fateful cut.  Coach Feldman denied there was any systematic approach to picking up former Disaster(ous) players. 

Even traditional doormats Semi-Precious got in on the act this past week, trading Alshon Jeffrey (11 points this week) for Andre Brown (17 points), Kenny Stills (13 points) AND the Disasters' #4 pick in next year's draft.  What is surprising is that more teams aren't trying to trade with ND!  Semi-P used Brown to upend Team Brokerage who now have 5 team QBs, none of which scored more than 21 points this week and none of which are ranked over 21st in the league in fantasy points, and perhaps most importantly, none of which are former Disasters QBs. 

And although it didn't net them a win, the Camel Jockey's trade for Pierre Thomas (38 points in his last 3 games) was well worth a #4 pick for a team that had an outside chance at a playoff spot before dropping their last three games.  Where did they get such a bargain player?  Why, Natural Disaster, of course!

Meanwhile Dale's Doormats also have two run-ins with the Watchdog recently.  It was the Watchdog that praised Cincy QBs for their run of 3 straight 300+ yards and 3+ TD games, perhaps causing the Doormats to finally play Dalton over Eagles QBs in week 9, and thus missing out on Nick Foles' 7-TD performance and settling for a tie that essentially put them out of the running for the Enchilada.  Fortunately, they learned their lesson and got Foles right back in there - what?  Foles stayed on the bench?  Well, it only cost Dale 6 points this week and had no impact on the outcome of their matchup against the STs (why do I want to put a D in there after the T?).  Anyhoo, it was about a month ago that the Disasters tried to trade for bench player Marques Colston, but a deal could not be reached.  Colston went on to score a total of 3 points over his next four games before getting derailed (untracked) this week with 107 yards and a TD. 


There is an I in I/T has had, let me say it here, a disappointing year.  Leading the way in disappointment is the dynamic duo of Trent Richardson and Roddy White.  Richardson has just one game this year where he's averaged better than 3.6 yards per carry, and that a sterling 10 carries for 40 yards against San Diego.  Last year, bad as it was overall (3.6 yards per carry average for the season), at least he had 5 games with better than 4.0 ypc, and four of those better than 4.8.  Heck, he even had two 100+ yard games!  And he finished with 12 TDs overall.  So far this year, he's on a pace for under 700 yards and just 4 TDs, pro rating his stats out over the remainder of the season.  Nearly 1/3 of his carries have gone for 1 yards or less.  But before you say Indy's O-Line stinks, Donald Brown is averaging 5.9 yards per carry bhind that same line.  Meanwhile, there's $20 Auction WR Rowdy Roddy White, who has totaled 12 points through week 10 of the season, another player Natural Disaster tried to trade for weeks ago.  How bad is that?  Trindon Holliday has one catch for 7 yards this season and has the same number of fantasy points as White.  Justin Blackmon, who has more suspensions than TDs this season, has 34 more points than White.  The Jets have three different WRs with more than twice as many points... it's bad I'm saying.

So how with Team Brokerage's trade earlier today work out?  Trading for Russell Wilson and Case Keenum just as the Seahawks O-Line gets healthy?  Logic and everything above points to monster days for Wilson.  Will it be enough for Brokerage to cash in with a playoff spot?  They're one game behind Gump and the Turd with three to play and currently hold the tie-breaker on the Turd.  Brokerage does have three tough games remaining against the Wombats, STDs and Marky Marc and the Funky Dogs while the Turd has I/T, Camel Jockeys and Semi-P left, so they'll have their work cut out for them there.  Gump lays Semi-P this week, but then the Wombats and STDs, so if Brokerage can win out and get some help, they could just pull it off.  Given that all they gave up was Andre Ellington, it's a low-risk / high-reward move.  Will Brokerage get what they asked for?  Will they get a "dart gun" or ... something less useful?  Given that the Disasters gave up Wilson...

Team Gump, on the other hand, as somehow managed to avoid all trades with the Disasters.  They just keep winning the old-fashioned way, by backing into it with blind-ass luck.  Or at least Andrew Luck.  For instance, here is their #1 RB Knowshon Moreno, rushing yards by year starting with his rookie campaign:  947, 779, 179, 525.  In those four years, he's totaled 16 TDs.  This year, through 9 games, he has 521 yards and 8 TDs and is only 36 yards shy of his career high in receiving yards (336 currently).  Astute second-round pick?  Or lucky as hell?  Now Torry Smith, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald were all great picks.  But as was asked on draft day, would this team look better with Calvin Johnson as their #1 WR, as they could have done?  Or were they better off with Fitzgerald, Jason Witten (their #2 TE as it turned out) and SF D?  I could throw a bunch of stats at you to try to explain it, but that's way too much work.  The closest I can come to a trade with Disaster is that they turned down Marshawn Lynch for their #1 pick earlier this week.  Will that come back to haunt them or do they have enough firepower with the Law Firm and the Bowling Ball (Mike Tolbert) at RB2?  Good ol' Rock.  Can't beat the Rock.

Perhaps the Watchdog's most infamous entry, going back further in history, is the "Eli's Restaurant Massacre" from 2007.  The Thanksgiving installment of the Watchdog that year focused on the lost cause that Eli was (or seemed) at that point, having just given away a game to the Vikings with four pick-sixes (technically three pick-sixes and one that was returned to the Giants' 8 and saw the Vikings score on the next play).  That, of course, was days before Eli and the Giants went on a tear that culminated in the ending of the Patriots' near-perfect season in the Super Bowl.  Curiously, here we are 6 years later and Eli has regressed back into that pre-Massacre QB.  For the third time in his career he is leading the league in interceptions.  His yards per attempt is tied for a career low of 5.5 with that 2007 year.  He is, for the first time in his illustrious career, on a pace for more INTs than TDs.  He is on pace to threaten the career INT numbers of Brett Favre if he plays long enough, and given that he is never injured, that seems likely.  And if you think I'm trying to put the old reverse-jinx on him in order to get the Giants playing well enough to make the playoffs this year... you may be onto something.

Now you might be thinking, hey if you run your yapper as much as the Watchdog does, you're bound to say something relevant, positive or negative sooner or later.  True enough!  Or as Samuel Twain (Shania's great-grandfather) once put it, "it is better to remain silent and be thought a Watchdog than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

Watchdog Week 9 - Playoff Picture

Nine weeks down, four to go!  In the Canes Division, it seems much has been decided but in the Quakes, things are still wide open.  Let's have a look at the upcoming schedule and see who will end up on top!

In the Canes Division, we must start with the putrid display between the Wombats and Dale's Doormats, two supposed Enchilada contenders.  Not only did they end up kissing their sisters, but they did so with scores of 54 each.  How bad is that?  Only four teams not named I/T have been worse than that in any game this season, including the self-same Wombats who beat I/T 52-51 in week 6.  How unlikely is it that the Wombats should start a WR for a team that scored 7 passing TDs and have him not come up with a catch?  Par for the course with Coach Moose.  The Wombats of course put up 118 when facing Natural Disaster in week 8.  Their remaining schedule includes TBD this week, followed by Brokerage, Gump and the Fatties.  No easy marks, and in fact TBD is the only team of the four the Wombats have out-scored this season and that by 6 points.  As long as they don't get swept, they should make the playoffs at 7-5-1 as the worst-case, and Calvin Johnson should help make 8-4-1 happen.

For Dale's Doormats, the tie does not seem crippling - they're unlikely to make the playoffs anyway.  Yes, they are half a game out of being tied for 2nd in the Quakes Division.  Yes, by points, they are just 15 behind Brokerage for third in the division.  If they had started Eagles QB and Foles' 7 TDs this week instead of the fantasy darling of the week, Andy Dalton, not only would they have won easily (Foles had 59 by himself) but the extra 45 points would have put them in second in points in the division.  Remaining schedule is the Steel Trojans this week followed by the Mad Dogs, Pep & Cheez and I/T.  By points, they should go 2-2, which would figure to leave them on the outside of the playoffs at 6-6-1, so if Gump and the Turd both go 8-5, the Doormats will need to sweep their last four and go 8-4-1.  Possible?  Yes, it's possible they're just lying there because they lack the strength to move.

Marky Marc and the Funky Mad Dogs continue to lead the league in points going to a three-game winning streak.  With that streak, they now lead by 64 over the Fatties, after putting up a league-high 113 this week despite sitting Peyton and getting a total of 4 points from Ryan Matthews and Jarrett Boykin.  With a 100-point lead over the Trojans in the points race, they figure to be strong candidate to win out against Natural Disaster, Dale's Doormats, TBD and Brokerage, but this is Fantasy Football and anything that can happen will happen.  Figure they go 3-1 and come in at 9-4 on the season though.  Three weeks in a row with 100+ and four of five with 98+.  If you think the Watchdog is trying to reverse-jinx the Mad Dogs into throwing up a 60-pointer this week... you may have something there.

An old SNL bit had an ad for Bad Idea Jeans with a guy saying "No, I didn't use a condom, but what the hey, when am I ever going to be in Haiti again?"  For the Turd, recipients of the beat-down by Marky Marc & co, put up a respectable 91, even spotting the Mad Dogs one running back by starting the putrid Mark Ingram over surprise starter CJ Spiller and goal line vulture Shonn Greene who both had double-digits.  How bad is Ingram?  His one point this weekend brings his season total to 4.  Last year he managed 91 total points and his rookie year he had 81.  He's had 10 starts in nearly three seasons.  If it wasn't for Eddie Lacy, I'd be launching an investigation into why Nick Saban RBs stink so badly in the NFL.  But I regress.  The Turd's remaining schedule features Pep & Cheez, I/T, Camel Jockeys and Semi-P.  This week's game vs P&C figures to be the hardest, though the Camel Jockeys may put up a fight also.  If they can't go at least 3-1, I'd be stunned.  That puts the Turd at 8-5 and likely in the playoffs in the Quakes division.

The Steel Trojans made an alert trade, giving up their #1 pick for Adrian Peterson, who put his grief behind him at finding out he had a(nother) son only to find this one on life support.  Pictured here are all of Peterson's kids doing the "Dumpster Baby Prom Queen Blues".  Not to call Peterson a Prom Queen...  Anyway, with half their team on a bye, the Trojans could not overcome the mighty Natural Dis... sorry, almost got through that with a straight face.  They still fell to the putrid Natural Disaster.  They did have a break-out performance from Ben Roofiesburger, with 40 points on the bench, and Aaron Dobson with 25, which would have been more than enough for a win had they both been in.  Trojans play Dale's Doormats, TBD, Brokerage and Team Gump over the last four weeks.  Gump figures to be a tough out, as does Dale but they should go at least 2-2 for an 8-5 finish.

Natural Disaster upped their record to 3-6, technically "not dead yet" two out of a playoff spot with four to go.  But they're not fooling anyone.  With a trip to Mad Dog Stadium this week, that should be enough to finish off whatever mathematical chance they have.  After the Mad Dogs, Disaster faces Pep & Cheez, I/T and the Camel Jockeys, so a 3-1 finish is theoretically possible, which would get them to 6-7.  Those 1-5 starts have a tendency to put a damper on a season...  Toilet Bowl here we come!

The Fatties lead the Quakes Division, moving to 6-3 with their third 100+ point effort of the season, despite the disappearance of Rutgers Rice and having to start Jake Locker with the Lions on a bye.  DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Lacy along with KC D accounted for the big points.  With games coming up against I/T, the Camel Jockeys, Semi-P and the Wombats, they have a good chance to run the table and finish 10-3.  They are McLovin. 

In the words of Jean Paul Sartre, "au revoir, Pep & Fromage."  Pep & Cheez, who had their playoff hopes dashed this week by the Fatties, are just 3-6 now, three back with four to play, before considering the tie-breaker (which again is points scored for the season).  Cam Newton continued his up and down campaign with just 23, but the lack of a second RB has definitely hurt.  Rookie WR Keenan Allen has been a find, averaging 13 points per game over the last five weeks, a mark that would put him at 5th best WR in the league if he had done that over the whole season.  With the Turd, Disasters, Doormats and TBD remaining on their schedule, it would take a 4-0 finish to have a chance at a playoff spot.  Seems unlikely.  4-9 or 5-8 and a Toilet Bowl birth seems more likely.

I was looking for a chance to make a Jack Black Crack.  Looks like this is as likely as chance as any.  The Gumpsters rode out the wave of the Broncos' bye week with an 81-69 win over I/T behind Andrew Luck and Jason Witten.  At 5-4, they've won two straight to get back into the playoff race, tied with Brokerage and the Turd for 2nd place in the Quakes, currently holding the tie-breaker over everyone else but the front-running Fatties.  Remaining games:  Camel Jockeys, Semi-P, Wombats and Steel Trojans, by points Gump should win all those, but figure they get tripped up at least once.  That puts them at 8-5, looking svelte and ready for the playoffs.

Brokerage had a big 91-86 win over the Camel Jockeys, who will regret having TY Hilton (30 points) on the bench for as long as they're reading this column - maybe even longer!  Anyway, Brokerage got a huge performance from Matt Forte, needing 18 on Monday Night and getting 23 for the win.  That puts Brokerage into the aforementioned 3-way with Gump and Turd.  (Yikes!)  With games left against Semi-P, the Wombats, Trojans and Mad Dogs, going 2-2 will be the most likely scenario.  That would leave them at 7-6 and in the Toilet Bowl.  With one of the deepest RB stables in the league, and one of the worst QB stables, a trade could be in the offing to increase the Brokerage percentage.

The answer is "fat chance, slim chance and no chance?"  The question is "What are the Camel Jockeys' chances of getting through the playoff "eye of the needle"?  Camel Jockeys needed that win this past week as they are now 4-5 and two games back with four to play, but probably losing the tie-breaker, being 60 points behind the Wombats and having to contend with their tie.  With Gump, the Fatties, Turd and Natural Disaster on the schedule, they need to win at least 2 of their next 3 and take care of business against the Disaster to get to 7-6.  That mark would still get them into the Toilet Bowl if my predictions above are correct and of course they always are!

TBD had a big win to stay just one back of the playoffs, despite leaving Tom Brady on the bench.  With Superman getting his powers back, LeVeon Bell, Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham, this team could yet be frisky this year.  With a schedule that includes the Wombats, Trojans, Mad Dogs and Pep & Cheez, they'll have to win all four and out-point the Turd by more than 2 points, should they also finish 8-5.

For I/T and Semi-P, participation ribbons are on their way to you via snail mail even as we speak.  Thank you for playing!

Assuming all that holds true, you'll see the Fatties win the Quakes Division, the Mad Dogs edge the Wombats in the Canes, with Gump and the Turd and Steel Trojans rounding out the playoff spots.  As with Dr. Gray's forecast or any good cat model run, you can bet that is the one scenario that won't come true.