Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Into the home stretch

Well, here we are with just 4 weeks left in the regular season. Despite Satchel Paige's advice: "Don't look back, someone may be gaining on you" we're going to do just that. A look back at the draft while glacing ahead to make sure we don't trip:

Hundering Turd: Keeping Brees ended up being a pretty good decision. Jacobs, not so much. Lynch with the #1 overall draft pick, likewise has disappointed. Colston and Vernon Davis, along with Kaeding and Giants D have the Turd in contention, one game out of the playoffs and just 3rd overall in points scored for the season. The lack of a running game will likely keep them from the Enchilada Bowl.

Red Bandits: Keeping Rodgers was a good fantasy decision. Tomlinson and Owens have disappointed, but Gore, Stewart and Celek, along with Gostkowski have been solid, putting them as the 3rd playoff team in the Canes division if the season ended today. Trading for Barber should help.

Brokerage did well with Forte, Barber, Westbrook and Bradshaw, as well as Pit QB in the 3rd Round, though he's sort of the opposite of Rodgers - a much better actual QB than fantasy. WRs have disappointed. At 3-6, they're still just 2 out of the playoffs. I would think a trade of an RB at this point for a WR might pay off.

Semi-P did well with Ronnie Brown and Carson Palmer (R2), and Randy Moss is coming on. Miles Austin in round 8 has been a revelation, but seemingly at the expense of Witten's stats. Taking Min QB in R7 was brilliant. One would think that at some point, having both Palmer and Favre would not be as beneficial as having say Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. Good job getting both Miami RBs too.

How is Team Gump on a 6-game losing streak? With the right Manning brother, the right Adrian Peterson, the only decent 30+ year old running back in Thomas Jones, they should be right in the mix right? Not so much... No receivers, though plenty have been available on waivers, no TE, K or D.

Sprockets may have overpaid a bit for Warner, but Chris Johnson and Portis have been solid, along with Driver and Holmes. At 6-3, looking to make a bid for a second Enchilada in 3 seasons.

Fish got lucky so far with Schaub staying healthy, Wayne has been fantastic and swapping Andre Johnson for Roddy White and Ray Rice turned this team from a playoff contender to an Enchilada contender.

Pep & Cheez had a mixed bag - good with McNabb and Pierre Thomas, not so good with LJ or Parker. Boldin, Anthony Gonzalez getting hurt didn't help. At 3-6, it looks like "wait til next year." Will they dump McNabb/Thomas for picks in next year's draft?

Dale's Doormats continue to be solid with $9 for Cutler. Overpaid a bit for Grant, but Mendenhall in R3 was a brilliant pick. Addai and Chester Taylor, along with Jennings and Percy Harvin, Dallas Clark and Jets D - they're one game out of the playoffs today. I think they'll sneak in.

Mighty E-Head look to continue the streak of tough years following a championship in this league. Rivers and Flacco are both good QBs, but below-average fantasy scorers. Slaton, Moreno and Buckhalter have disappointed, as have all the WRs. They're 4-5, like the Doormats and Turd, but should be headed to the Toilet Bowl this year.

Tim & Kumar are still trying to get by with Matt Hasselback, a suspiscious cast of RBs and a few good WRs. At 5-4, barring a trade they seem the most likely to miss the playoffs of any team currently "in".

Fatties were everybody's pre-season favorite with Brady, Turner, DA Williams. Add Eddie Royal, a fortuitous trade of Braylon Edwards and they seem like a team on the upswing.

Electric Mayhem's drafting and trading woes have been well documented. They had to fight off a late challenge from Tim & Kumar for the coveted Ditka Cup (worst job of over-coaching) when T&K spent all $96 remaining waiver dollars on Ryan Moats and then accidentally cut him to pick up a 3rd rate TE. Fortunately it was a simple matter of clicking on the wrong guy, so the Ditka Cup is safe.

And last but not least, the 8-1 Wombats. An early-season trade of Kevin Smith for Matt Ryan saved them from having to play Delhomme or Orton, and due to the Mayhem's expert management, they did not trade Cedric Benson as they originally offered. Good thing the Mayhem insisted on K-Smith. Such are the fortunes of the fantasy football follies. Maurice Jones-Drew and Vincent Jackson along with 4th rounder Jeremy Shockey have the Wombats in prime position for a post-season swoon.

Best early draft pick nominees: Thomas Jones for the Gumpsters, Braylon Edwards for the Fatties, Ray Rice for the Mayhem and Cedric Benson for the Wombats are the only choices. I gotta give it to the old guy.

Best late draft pick nominees: Vernon Davis (R7), Favre (R7), Austin (R8), Harvin (R5), Ricky Williams (R6), Steve Smith (R7), McGahee (R5) are the best of the lot. Tempting to give it to Favre, but he shouldn't have lasted that long. Certainly those teams who picked Jacksonville, Buffalo, Giants, Dolphins and Panthers ahead of him need to be called out. McGahee started the season strong but has vanished recently. Harvin may be the best player in the draft, but probably not this year. That leaves Smith, Davis and Austin. I give it to Austin and Semi-P. First of all because Austin himself is such a long-shot in the NFL where the other two were high draft picks. Secondly because of how badly Dallas' season started. And lastly because of how well Semi-R did with their picks overall. 3 of the above picks were Semi-R guys. Nice.

Worst Auction $ spent nominees: Tomlinson for $27, Larry Johnson for $23, Ryan Grant for $46, McFadden for $32, Steve Smith for $26. Let's just give it to Mayhem (McFadden and Smith) and call it a day.

Worst high draft pick nominees: LenDale White and Derrick Ward for the Fish; Willie Parker and Anthony Gonzalez for Pep & Cheez; Beanie Wells and John Carlson for Mayhem; and the winner is Fish in a Barrell with White and Ward. Ward has 188 yards rushing and 1 TD in 1 start while White has 198 yards and 1 TD in 0 starts. Pep & Cheez actually has worse stats with Parker (187 yds and no TDs) and Gonzalez (injured before making a catch) - but a) Ward and White have been healthy and still stunk; b) Gonzalez might have been pretty good if healthy; and c) we can't have the Fish getting too full of themselves. So there.

Best auction money spent nominees: Schaub for $10 is the clear winner for the Fish (see what I mean?) Tony Romo was #2, so that tells you something right there. Schaub is tied for second in points with a guy named Brady (no, not Quinn) and just 7 points behind Rodgers.

Best keeper nominees: Brees for the Turd, Chris Johnson for the Sprockets, Ronnie Brown for SP, Pierre Thomas for Pep & Cheez, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams for the Fatties and Maurice Jones-Drew for the Wombats. Give it Brees, but Jones-Drew and Johnson both have been great, and the combo of Turner and Williams has let the Fatties fulfill their pre-season promise.

By the way, did anyone else notice that Eli Manning is currently 6th in fantasy points for QBs? Obviously part of that is that he hasn't had his bye week yet. But it really goes to prove how separated fantasy value can be from being a good NFL player right? (Am I allowed to say that?)

Remember the Thursday game this week folks!
Watchdog out...