Watchdog Week 9 - Playoff Picture

Nine weeks down, four to go!  In the Canes Division, it seems much has been decided but in the Quakes, things are still wide open.  Let's have a look at the upcoming schedule and see who will end up on top!

In the Canes Division, we must start with the putrid display between the Wombats and Dale's Doormats, two supposed Enchilada contenders.  Not only did they end up kissing their sisters, but they did so with scores of 54 each.  How bad is that?  Only four teams not named I/T have been worse than that in any game this season, including the self-same Wombats who beat I/T 52-51 in week 6.  How unlikely is it that the Wombats should start a WR for a team that scored 7 passing TDs and have him not come up with a catch?  Par for the course with Coach Moose.  The Wombats of course put up 118 when facing Natural Disaster in week 8.  Their remaining schedule includes TBD this week, followed by Brokerage, Gump and the Fatties.  No easy marks, and in fact TBD is the only team of the four the Wombats have out-scored this season and that by 6 points.  As long as they don't get swept, they should make the playoffs at 7-5-1 as the worst-case, and Calvin Johnson should help make 8-4-1 happen.

For Dale's Doormats, the tie does not seem crippling - they're unlikely to make the playoffs anyway.  Yes, they are half a game out of being tied for 2nd in the Quakes Division.  Yes, by points, they are just 15 behind Brokerage for third in the division.  If they had started Eagles QB and Foles' 7 TDs this week instead of the fantasy darling of the week, Andy Dalton, not only would they have won easily (Foles had 59 by himself) but the extra 45 points would have put them in second in points in the division.  Remaining schedule is the Steel Trojans this week followed by the Mad Dogs, Pep & Cheez and I/T.  By points, they should go 2-2, which would figure to leave them on the outside of the playoffs at 6-6-1, so if Gump and the Turd both go 8-5, the Doormats will need to sweep their last four and go 8-4-1.  Possible?  Yes, it's possible they're just lying there because they lack the strength to move.

Marky Marc and the Funky Mad Dogs continue to lead the league in points going to a three-game winning streak.  With that streak, they now lead by 64 over the Fatties, after putting up a league-high 113 this week despite sitting Peyton and getting a total of 4 points from Ryan Matthews and Jarrett Boykin.  With a 100-point lead over the Trojans in the points race, they figure to be strong candidate to win out against Natural Disaster, Dale's Doormats, TBD and Brokerage, but this is Fantasy Football and anything that can happen will happen.  Figure they go 3-1 and come in at 9-4 on the season though.  Three weeks in a row with 100+ and four of five with 98+.  If you think the Watchdog is trying to reverse-jinx the Mad Dogs into throwing up a 60-pointer this week... you may have something there.

An old SNL bit had an ad for Bad Idea Jeans with a guy saying "No, I didn't use a condom, but what the hey, when am I ever going to be in Haiti again?"  For the Turd, recipients of the beat-down by Marky Marc & co, put up a respectable 91, even spotting the Mad Dogs one running back by starting the putrid Mark Ingram over surprise starter CJ Spiller and goal line vulture Shonn Greene who both had double-digits.  How bad is Ingram?  His one point this weekend brings his season total to 4.  Last year he managed 91 total points and his rookie year he had 81.  He's had 10 starts in nearly three seasons.  If it wasn't for Eddie Lacy, I'd be launching an investigation into why Nick Saban RBs stink so badly in the NFL.  But I regress.  The Turd's remaining schedule features Pep & Cheez, I/T, Camel Jockeys and Semi-P.  This week's game vs P&C figures to be the hardest, though the Camel Jockeys may put up a fight also.  If they can't go at least 3-1, I'd be stunned.  That puts the Turd at 8-5 and likely in the playoffs in the Quakes division.

The Steel Trojans made an alert trade, giving up their #1 pick for Adrian Peterson, who put his grief behind him at finding out he had a(nother) son only to find this one on life support.  Pictured here are all of Peterson's kids doing the "Dumpster Baby Prom Queen Blues".  Not to call Peterson a Prom Queen...  Anyway, with half their team on a bye, the Trojans could not overcome the mighty Natural Dis... sorry, almost got through that with a straight face.  They still fell to the putrid Natural Disaster.  They did have a break-out performance from Ben Roofiesburger, with 40 points on the bench, and Aaron Dobson with 25, which would have been more than enough for a win had they both been in.  Trojans play Dale's Doormats, TBD, Brokerage and Team Gump over the last four weeks.  Gump figures to be a tough out, as does Dale but they should go at least 2-2 for an 8-5 finish.

Natural Disaster upped their record to 3-6, technically "not dead yet" two out of a playoff spot with four to go.  But they're not fooling anyone.  With a trip to Mad Dog Stadium this week, that should be enough to finish off whatever mathematical chance they have.  After the Mad Dogs, Disaster faces Pep & Cheez, I/T and the Camel Jockeys, so a 3-1 finish is theoretically possible, which would get them to 6-7.  Those 1-5 starts have a tendency to put a damper on a season...  Toilet Bowl here we come!

The Fatties lead the Quakes Division, moving to 6-3 with their third 100+ point effort of the season, despite the disappearance of Rutgers Rice and having to start Jake Locker with the Lions on a bye.  DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Lacy along with KC D accounted for the big points.  With games coming up against I/T, the Camel Jockeys, Semi-P and the Wombats, they have a good chance to run the table and finish 10-3.  They are McLovin. 

In the words of Jean Paul Sartre, "au revoir, Pep & Fromage."  Pep & Cheez, who had their playoff hopes dashed this week by the Fatties, are just 3-6 now, three back with four to play, before considering the tie-breaker (which again is points scored for the season).  Cam Newton continued his up and down campaign with just 23, but the lack of a second RB has definitely hurt.  Rookie WR Keenan Allen has been a find, averaging 13 points per game over the last five weeks, a mark that would put him at 5th best WR in the league if he had done that over the whole season.  With the Turd, Disasters, Doormats and TBD remaining on their schedule, it would take a 4-0 finish to have a chance at a playoff spot.  Seems unlikely.  4-9 or 5-8 and a Toilet Bowl birth seems more likely.

I was looking for a chance to make a Jack Black Crack.  Looks like this is as likely as chance as any.  The Gumpsters rode out the wave of the Broncos' bye week with an 81-69 win over I/T behind Andrew Luck and Jason Witten.  At 5-4, they've won two straight to get back into the playoff race, tied with Brokerage and the Turd for 2nd place in the Quakes, currently holding the tie-breaker over everyone else but the front-running Fatties.  Remaining games:  Camel Jockeys, Semi-P, Wombats and Steel Trojans, by points Gump should win all those, but figure they get tripped up at least once.  That puts them at 8-5, looking svelte and ready for the playoffs.

Brokerage had a big 91-86 win over the Camel Jockeys, who will regret having TY Hilton (30 points) on the bench for as long as they're reading this column - maybe even longer!  Anyway, Brokerage got a huge performance from Matt Forte, needing 18 on Monday Night and getting 23 for the win.  That puts Brokerage into the aforementioned 3-way with Gump and Turd.  (Yikes!)  With games left against Semi-P, the Wombats, Trojans and Mad Dogs, going 2-2 will be the most likely scenario.  That would leave them at 7-6 and in the Toilet Bowl.  With one of the deepest RB stables in the league, and one of the worst QB stables, a trade could be in the offing to increase the Brokerage percentage.

The answer is "fat chance, slim chance and no chance?"  The question is "What are the Camel Jockeys' chances of getting through the playoff "eye of the needle"?  Camel Jockeys needed that win this past week as they are now 4-5 and two games back with four to play, but probably losing the tie-breaker, being 60 points behind the Wombats and having to contend with their tie.  With Gump, the Fatties, Turd and Natural Disaster on the schedule, they need to win at least 2 of their next 3 and take care of business against the Disaster to get to 7-6.  That mark would still get them into the Toilet Bowl if my predictions above are correct and of course they always are!

TBD had a big win to stay just one back of the playoffs, despite leaving Tom Brady on the bench.  With Superman getting his powers back, LeVeon Bell, Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham, this team could yet be frisky this year.  With a schedule that includes the Wombats, Trojans, Mad Dogs and Pep & Cheez, they'll have to win all four and out-point the Turd by more than 2 points, should they also finish 8-5.

For I/T and Semi-P, participation ribbons are on their way to you via snail mail even as we speak.  Thank you for playing!

Assuming all that holds true, you'll see the Fatties win the Quakes Division, the Mad Dogs edge the Wombats in the Canes, with Gump and the Turd and Steel Trojans rounding out the playoff spots.  As with Dr. Gray's forecast or any good cat model run, you can bet that is the one scenario that won't come true.