Time for our week four "pre-season" Dr. Gray forecast. What we know in our whole head is more than the fantasy knowledge you have in your little pinkie. Or something like that.
Anyway, it looks to the Watchdog like there are four top teams, five more in the middle of the pack and another five who will surely get participation ribbons this year and a hearty "thanks for paying your league dues (every year)".
I've taken it upon myself to look at each team's roster and where their players rank currently by position. If you have the #1 QB, #1 and 2 RB, #1 and 2 WR, #1 TE, K and D, you'd have 10 points, which is the lowest and best score possible for a starting eight. I also looked at points scored so far this season and of course wins. So let's rank the teams, starting with the rank and smelly and working up to the dominating and odorless.
PARTICIPATION RIBBONS:
If you're a parent these days, perhaps your kid too has a drawer full of participation ribbons. My daughter has started to despise hers, even as she treasures the handful of actual placement ribbons she's won. Irregardless, you have IT and the Camels as the only teams who have not cracked 290 points scored. Not surprisingly, they have one win each.
The Camel Jockeys have Matty Ice (5th QB), CJ2.0 (26th RB), Pierre Garcon and Julian Edelman (15 and 19), Vernon Davis (11th TE), Dan Bailey (13th K) and Jets D (23rd). So unless Ryan Fitzpatrick lights a fire in the Titans offense and gets Johnson off track (or is that untracked?), they'll have only one top 10 player at any position, and only three top 20 players, with two of those being a kicker and a TE.
IT does have Phil Rivers, Dez Bryant, Cecil Shorts, Jared Cook and David Akers. The bad news is that Rivers hasn't actually started yet this year, sitting behind Kaepernick. The ugly news is that their best RBs are Trent Richardson and Rashard Mendenhall (19 and 28 respectively).
Natural Disaster is the only other team to score less than 334 points, and of course, they have yet to get off the schnide, much to the dismay of the new head coach. However, things don't look quite so bleak for the Disaster, as the GM has been scrambling, having picked up Nate Washington (16th WR), Charles Clay (7th TE), Nick Novak (7th K) and Bills D (9th) to go with Russell Spaulding Wilson (7th QB), Lynch (5th), Powell (15th) and Calvin Johnson (5th). They do seem to have a knack for losing the close game, and it remains to be seen how the return of Mike Goodson from suspension will affect Bilal Powell's production.
The Fatties and Wombats are nearly identical in points (337-334 respectively) and wins (2 each), but vastly different in how their rosters are made up. The Wombats, with their four QBs, have Rodgers (2nd in average PPG), Gore (11), Al Morris (14), Chris Givens (56), Tony Gonzalez (5), Garrett Hartley (5) and Patriots D (16). Their other WRs are Jason Avant and Danny "Out With a Groin" Amendola. I keep waiting for them to trade one of their three decent QBs (Schaub or Romo) and try to get a WR somewhere, but so far the trade winds have been quiet.
The Fatties have 337 total points, but with a roster featuring Stafford (5), Rice, Lacy, DeSean Jackson (8), Marshall (13), Celek (23), Houston K (20) and Chefs D (1) better days are ahead if they can ever get their cats healthy. In fact, you could argue that they belong on the next level down (or up, depending on how you look at it).
LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT MY FANTASY FOOTBALL TEAM!
Is there anyone in the world that really is truly interested in how someone else's fantasy team is doing? Particularly if that team is not winning? Do we really care about bad breaks, injuries or unlucky weeks? Let me clear it up for you, if you didn't know: no, we do not. That said, it is likely that two of these next five teams will make the Enchilada Bowl. If you can figure out which two, let me know how you did it. That kind of prognostication should be worth something. I think I have a roll of quarters here in my pocket.
Team Brokerage has an awesome team on paper, except their QB, as previously noted in other weeks. You have McCoy (3), Forte (4), Nicks and Wallace, Finley, Gostkowski (1) and Titans D (5). But Nicks and Wallace both have the misfortune of playing for teams with either bad QBs or bad offenses (or both?). And then there's Ryan Tannehill (24th ranked QB and pictured left), their only QB. Has Brokerage hit on a winning formula by picking up whichever D is playing against one of the New York teams? Time will tell, but it's hard to argue with right now.
Pep & Cheez has had to deal with the disappointing Cam Newton (26th???), but gotten OK production from Cutler (10th). Charles (2), Bradshaw (22) and Dan Thomas (36) make up a nice stable of backs. Steve Johnson (25) and DeAndre Hopkins (34) show their weak spot at WR (I think this guy catches better), while Gates has been rejuvenated (3rd TE). Philly K and Saints D (15 and 13) have been barely passable.
The Hundering Turd have 3 wins, but only 347 points scored. Brees (2), or a lot of mud, will cover a multitude of sins. Spiller and MJD (31 and 40) have been awful, but Spiller at least projects to break out of his early problems. Giovani Bernard (17) has some upside as well. The Jones brothers (Julio is 4th, James is 29th in PPG) have been solid. Fleener (13th TE) has struggled with injuries, while Vinatieri and Vikings D (11 and 10) have been OK.
On the list of Billy Joel/Christie Brinkley marriages, perhaps at the very top, you have Ric Ocasek (formerly of the Cars) and Paulina Porizkova (formerly of SI Swimsuit fame). You might have called Ric the luckiest man in the world, if he hadn't died so young. I tell you that story to tell you this one: Team Gump has "lucked" into "passable" production from their QB - Alex Smith (11th) has edged out Andrew Luck (13th) so far this year. Moreno (13), Green-Ellis (30) have been barely adequate. Demaryius Thomas, Torrey Smith and Larry Fitzgerald (2, 10 and 18) highlight the team's strength, along with Julius Thomas (4th TE), Seattle K (8) and the disappointing (so far) SF D (21st).
The best of this bunch is Semi-P, which was fortunate that the Giants don't have another option at RB besides David Wilson. But Bradford (14) has out-performed Pick6 Manning (17) so far. Peterson has been great (1st RB) but not dominant. Nelson, Andre Johnson and Alshon Jeffery (3rd in PPG, 26 and 31) have been good at WR. Daniels (9), Gould (10) and Seattle D (2) have been good. If Pick6 can pick up his play, which could happen if the Giants can get healthy on their O-Line, Semi-P should edge up into the next group.
THE CONTENDERS:
Pagano has the right Manning (or the one of the left) (1), Fragile Fred Jackson (10), Ryan Mathews (21) AJ Green (11) and Randall Cobb (tied-8 in PPG), Decker (22), Jennings (24), Kyle Rudolph (27), Dan Carpenter (6th K), and Dallas D (4th). If they can find a running back (Stevan Ridley is 42nd and Ronnie Hillman is 33rd) or even a TE, they may well have enough to reach the Promised Land.
It is true that since marrying Gisele Ono, Tom Brady is 3-4 in the post-season. However, when Tom Brady (18th QB) is the weak spot on your team, things are going pretty well. Such is the case for TBD (formerly defending champion Red Bandits). They have Foster (8) and McFadden (18), along with LeVeon Bell (39) who missed a few weeks to start the year. Eddie Royal (9) has probably scored over half his fantasy points this year (he has 48 so far), but Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Gordon and Stephen Hill both figure to have their best days ahead (17, 36 and 42). Steve Smith (57) has disappeared with Newton. But they have a pretty good TE in Jimmy Graham (1), Kicker (Walsh is 4) and D (Colts are 7). Unfortunately for the Colts D, their second game against Jacksonville is in week 17. Nevertheless, a strong team this TBD.
The only undefeated team comes in as the second-best on my rankings. That is the Steel Trojans, a team, we are told, that is named after the Steelers and USC Trojans. Given that the Steelers are 0-4 and the Trojans just fired their coach, there are rumors afoot that the Steel Trojans have been in discussions to make Lane Kiffin their new defensive coordinator. You could argue this is too low for the STs, as Griffin (12) is likely to get healthier and more dangerous as the season goes. They have the Vacator (6th), Joique Bell (9), Sproles (12), DeAngelo Williams (25) and Steven Jackson (46). They have Welker (3), Boldin (12), Wayne (20) and Hartline (23). They have Bennett at TE (6), and Matt Bryant (9) and Ravens D (12). If you want to say they could do better with those spots, that's probably true. Otherwise, a pretty well-constructed team.
So how much did the extra draft picks help? They got Sproles, Welker and Wayne in the first round, so yes that helped. But their first pick was 6th, so anyone could have picked any of those guys. Gump's pick of Green-Ellis, the Pagano's pick of Ryan Matthews and the Wombats pick of Darryl Richardson rank as questionable first rounders so far. Further, how much does trading for extra picks help? In four seasons, ten teams have had more than one first round pick, counting two this year. Three of the eight have finished first in their division, none have won the Enchilada Bowl. Four have finished under .500 for the season.
And last and best on the ranking comes Dale's Doormats. Vick (4), DeMarco Murray (7), Doug Martin (16) and Lamar Miller (24) along with Victor Cruz (1), Antonio Brown (6) and Marques Colston (28) and a strong "special team": Jordan Cameron (2), Matt Prater (2) and Bears D (3) give the Doormats the strongest starting eight in the league with 41 points. The Trojans were second with 69. If you look at it by points scored instead of by ranking, their 478 points scored by their best 8 is 67 points better than the #2 team in the league (TBD) and 97 points better than the league average (that is, nearly 25 points per game per week over the league average score). The Doormats had that goofy trade with IT, which seems to have sunk IT and somehow given the Doormats the best team in the league. IT has endured Kaepernick's struggles, even at the expense of playing him over Rivers. But how did Dale benefit? They picked up Tavon Austin with the extra pick, Montee Ball with the 2nd round pick-swap - but Jordan Cameron with the 5th round pick, which was the 11th pick that round rather than their normal 5th spot. So in a word, the trade didn't help at all. Really it's a matter of each of their positions being filled by at least a viable starter. If Cruz, Cameron and Brown, along with Vick, continue their strong seasons, the Doormats look like the odds-on pick for the Enchilada Championship.
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