Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Watchdog week 3 - an exercise in mediocrity

Sometime early Sunday afternoon, we'll pass the 1/4 pole of the season.  What do we know so far?  Well, the Sprockets aren't very good.  The Fatties and Red Bandits are again out to stong starts while the Turd and Semi-P are off to unusually good starts.  Everyone else in the league is 1-2.  I'm not even sure this is mathematically possible, but there you have it.  And since everyone seems to be mailing it in this year, it's time for the Watchdog to lead by example and get things riled up in here!

So how bad are the Sprockets?  You'd think a team with Aaron Rodgers, DeMarco Murray, Megatron, Mike Wallace and Aaron Hernandez can't be too bad.  It doesn't help having the 30th ranked fantasy D in the league as their only D.  OK Hernandez got hurt, and they don't have a second RB much less a third.  In actuality, their points scored are tied for 9th in the league.  A return to form for Rodgers wouldn't hurt - after averaging 31.5 points per game last year, he's averaging just 17 through three games this year.  If Rodgers was averaging even halfway in between, it would put the Sprockets at 4th in the league in scoring so far this year.  Replacing the awful Chefs with any of the top 10 Ds available as free agents would help even more. 

With 10 of the 14 teams at 1-2, how do you distinguish between one pile of feces and another?  By what that team ate to produce the pile in question.  And the team with the biggest stench so far among these seemingly identical stinkers is - your defending champion Gumpsters!  While a 58-point "effort" in week 3 didn't help their numbers any, they'd only averaged 79 in the first two weeks.  "Overhead" Cam Newton is certainly part of the problem.  Losing Bradshaw the last couple of weeks didn't help.  Getting a total of 6 points from their 4 WRs may be the crux of the matter.  Woodhead and Felix figure to be at lease passable as back-up RBs once Bradshaw is healthy (if he can get healthy).  Pitta was a nice grab off the waiver wire.  Ravens' D needs to step up, but they don't play the Patriots again this season, so they got that going for them.  Which is nice.  The good news is that Andrew Luck looks pretty good and that there are at least a dozen acceptable WRs on waivers. 

Just a single point ahead of the Gumpsters are the Camel Jockeys (or Kumar of Tim & Kumar fame).  The bad news is that they got their first victory of the season by an absolute gift - 64 points is not a total that will win you many games.  The good news is that their bench scored 79 and simply inserting Roofiesberger for Old Man Rivers, they'd shoot up to league average in points on the season.  Alertly scooping up Natural Disaster cast-off Daniel Thomas off waivers adds an nice layer of depth at RB, especially if Reggie W Bush has trouble staying healthy.  (Helpful hint:  when in doubt, pick up the player cut by Disaster.  It's even more a sure thing than the Madden Curse.) 

The controversial Walla Walla Wombats are next as we move up the rank ranks.  After controversially starting Chris Johnson and his 1.4 yards per carry average, and Tony Romo against the suddenly juvenated Tampa Bay D instead of Joe Flacco against the consistent New England D, the WWW reacted by controversially picking up Golden Tate, the diminutive thief from the Pacific Northwest.  One wonders whether the Wombats will waive the wideout when Wayne is wakened next week (whew!).  With CJ2.0 (that's for his YPC not indicating he's new and improved), Toby Gerhart and Kevin Smith taking up roster space and Devery Henderson as their only other "legitimate" WR (and I use that term loosely), the Wombats are thin, but dangerous.  Choosing between these two cheeseballs each week is going to be a tough trough though (I'm not sure what that means either).  And now, controversially, the Wombats have benched CJ2.0.  What will become of the former has-been?

In a battle of the bottom of the barrel, the Wombats will hope to beat I/R this week, a team that continues its dubious tradition from last year as Darius Heyward-Bey looked like Apollo Creed when he fought Drago in Rocky IV.  If Trent Richardson can play the Bengals every week, I/R can roll out most of a nice starting 8 with Buick spokesman of the week at starting QB, Steven Jackson, Steven Johnson, Nate Boom Boom Washington, Heath Miller or Jermaine to the Conversation Gresham at TE and Shayne "Crackers" Graham or Nate "Alex P" Kaeding at K the only other question mark is whether the Pats D is the juggernaught that trounced the Titans in week one or the Jello that tried to stop the Cards and Ravens in weeks 2 and 3.  The problem with Richardson is that, outside the Cincy game he's averaging only slightly better than Chris Johnson. 

Unbelievably, Team Brokerage is tied with the 0-3 Sprockets for 9th most points scored so far this year.  Now I say "unbelievably" because the Brokes are projected to score 107 points this week when they battle the aforementioned Sprockets.  The Brokes have benched Michael Vick in favor of Harvard Fitzpatrick (and the forecasters agree with the decision).  Their season may ride on whether this guy (Ryan Mathews) can hold onto the football or whether he'll treat it like a greased watermelon.  The other key to their season is also Charging into mediocrity.  After 8 seasons of averaging over 9 TDs per season, Antonio Gates has 7 catches for 65 yards and 0 TD in the first 3 games of 2012.  The Brokes have done a nice job of working the waiver wire, picking up Bilage Powell (4.0 YPC vs Shonn Greene's 3.4) and Lamar Miller (5.2 YPC backing up the oft-injured Reggie the Vacator and the oft-fumbling Daniel Thomas) as well as #2 D in the NFL Arizona Cardinals (not a typo - and that after playing both New England and Philadelphia).  The strength of this team though is at WR with AJ Green and Percy Harvin starting and Danny Amendola (currently 6th ranked WR in the NFL) and DeSean Jackson backing up. 

Next up is Natural Disaster, which again left too many points on the bench this week in the person of Kyle Randolph, whose 2 TDs would have been enough to secore a victory against the Fatties (and on the waiver wire, in Christian Ponder, whose 2 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD would have been more than enough compared to this guy.  Trading Cutler, Michael Bush and Hakeem Nicks for Drew Brees, Marques Colston and spare change (Knowshon Moreno) seems to fix Disaster's biggest problem.  Now their season will hinge on whether a) Andre the Giant Brown continues to out-run Ahmad Bradshaw and/or it's "Fast Freddie" or "Fragile Freddie" Jackson who comes back to the Bills this week; b) Andrew Hawkins continues to look like a homeless man's Wes Welker and c) whether they can finally pick which tight end to play. 

In a mediocre league that is averaging 83.31 points per game so far this season, Pep & Cheez is averaging a stellar 83.33 points per game - miles better!  They did put up 106 of their 250 this week though, with half of that coming from Matt Schaub and Jamaal Charles, who looked fairly healthy in week 3 (233 yards on 33 carries) after a week 2 showing that even CJ2.0 would spit on (3 yards on 6 carries).  On the season he's averaging 5.9 YPC and for his career 6.04 (on 554 carries).  This week's opponent, the Chargers, have bottled up Charles to a mere 5.9 YPC in his career though.  Charles is the large RB in the P&C stable, with Darren Sproles the other starter.  Their tilt this week against Wilt Chamberlain leader Dale's Doormats will leave one team at 1-3 (but really only 1 game out of a playoff spot).  By the way, how are the Redskins' D #4 in the league in fantasy points?  They've given up 101 points in three games!  That is a hard trick to pull off!

The penultimate 1-2 powerhouse is Dunder Mifflin, the people person paper people.  As exciting as putting up 114 points is for the Dundies, any time you see "Matthew Stafford (leg) was unable to practice" you have to hold your collective breath, especially when Josh Freeman is your backup.  With "Air Vernon" Davis, World Wide Wes and Andre "Ooh My Groin" Johnson, Stephen "Believe It or Not" Ridley, Cedric "Benson" Benson and Tony Gonzalez rounding out the team, Stafford's health makes the Dundies either a powerhouse or a "paper tiger" (sorry...).

Leading the entire league in scoring is (are?) Dale's Doormats, the last of our 1-2 medo-crites.  So who are these Doormats?  They scored 94 week 1, following that up with 131 in week 2 and then 68 in week 3.  Seemingly, overall points leader Bob Griffin gives them a significant edge, especially when paired with Arian Foster.  Doug Martin, Demarius Thomas and Dwayne Bowe don't figure to all take the week off at the same time again.  Coby Fleener and Marcedes Lewis combined for 8 yards receiving in week 3 and TE remains a problem, and as the Packers continue to struggle defensively, carrying only one team D seems a risky strateegery. 

 The Fatties are the "worst" 3-0 team, having lucked into a 67-63 win in week 2, but earned hard wins in weeks 1 and 3, 91-84 and 100-93 respectively.  Readers of the Sports Guy might recognize this strategem as the ultimate "Milton Berle" - taking out just enough to win each week.  With Brady, MJD, BJ-GE, Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall and #1 fantasy D Chicago, they have the makings of a strong starting 8.  Ryan Williams may have just earned #1 starter for Arizona and Torrey Smith is looking like a #1 WR in the making.  Having no backup QB (sorry Jacksonville), TE, K or D may come back to haunt them, but other than week 6 (when most of their starters are off) and week 9 (when Brady is off), they should be fine.

The 3-0 Bandits will face off against the 3-0 Turd this week.  The Bandits are averaging exactly 87 points per game and are projected to score exactly 87 again this week!  How's that for prognosticating?!?!  With Reggie the Vacator on the sidelines and the Bandit's other 4 RBs besides LeSean McCoy averaging 3.33 points per game, the Bandits could be in a short-term fix.  Eli, McCoy, "Which One's Pink" and "Me and Julio" Jones, Jason Witten and Seattle D, the Bandits have the makings of a playoff team - if Bush can come back healthy.

The Hundering Turd is currently 4th in the league in points per game, having gotten off the schnide vs the aforementioned Brokes. With their three best RBs injured and their other RBs named Knowshon and LaMichael (you can't make this up), the Turd traded 2011 MVP Drew Brees for Michael Bush and Hakeem Nicks. Healthy, that gives them a lineup of Andy Doolin' Daulton, CJ Spiller and either Forte or Bush, Vincent Jackson and Nicks, Owen Daniels or Freddie "One Toke Over the Line" Davis, Garrett Hartley or Jason "MmmBop" Hanson and Giants D, with McGaheehee, Crabtree and Lance Moore backing up, along with Cutler. Will this trade make the Turd important or impotent?

And leading the league (more or less) is Semi-Precious?!?!  At just 3 points off the Wilt and sporting a fancy 3-0 record, SP has all the markings of an Enchilada contender!  Matty Ice, Yo Adrian Peterson, Frank the Riddler Gore(shen), Larry Fitzgerald, Miles Austin, Gronk, Chicago Kickers and Dallas D, a stellar starting 8.  They carry two young QBs to back up Ryan in Bradford and Locker, a break-out candidate at TE in Martellus Bennett and five position players who totaled 2 points in week 3.  But that's just one week right?  Law of Large Numbers (or Small Sample Size)?  Week 2 those same 5 guys scored 3 points and Week 1 they scored 9.  Hmmm...  They are projected to score 113 in week 4, though still only get 9 points from those 5 bench guys.  Not saying they won't beat Disaster this week - but like a guy who just took Viagra, you have to wonder how long they can keep this up? 

By the way, before we all start swapping spit in the shower over the league's projected points, keep in mind that the lowest projected point total for week 4 is 87 (Red Bandits) while in actuality, 10 teams have averaged 87 or lower over the first 3 weeks of the season.

And by the by-way, the deadline for getting your money in has come and gone.  Fines have begun to be levied.  Don't make me hurt you.

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