Watchdog - 7/11

As we all know, Reinsurance is really just legalized gambling. And fantasy football is just plain gambling. I was listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN this morning and they were talking with Tiger Woods. Two things he said struck me as profound:

Mike: To save someone's life, you had to make a three-foot putt but you couldn't take it, who are you handing the putter to?

Tiger: That's not happening.

Mike: Do you believe in the golf gods?

Tiger: Kind of.

Mike: When someone tells me I'm playing really well, I want to hit them in the head with my driver because I know the golf gods are going to get me.

Tiger: That's your problem. You should never stop trying to improve.

Was Tiger intending to be deep? I don't think so. I think he was trying to be funny. Did he know he was going to be in the Watchdog this week? I think if the thought was ever going to cross his mind, it had to be while uttering these words.

So how much do we know about fantasy football? I don't know much (as evidenced by my team's performance thank you very much), but I know this:

Before the season, the top 10 QBs were, in order: NE, IND, DAL, NO, PHI, CLE, PIT, ARI, CIN and NYJ. Currently they are: SD (pre-season 20th), DAL, GB (21st), NO, DEN (18th), ARI, CHI (24th), NYJ, HOU (15th), and SF (19th). So four of the pre-season top 14 are currently ranked in the top 10.

Before the season, the top 10 RBs were, in order: Tomlinson, Westbrook, A Peterson, S Jackson, Lynch, Gore, Barber, L Johnson, Portis and Addai. Currently, the top 10 RBs are Portis, Barber, Bush (20th), Gore, Forte (30th), A Peterson, Jackson, Turner (18th), Brown (24th) and Jacobs (21st). So the top 2 are rated 14th and 20th respectively and 5 of the top 10 are different now.

Before the season, the top 10 WRs were, in order: Moss, Owens, Edwards, Fitzgerald, Wayne, A Johnson, Coston, S Smith, Holt, and Houshmandzadeh. Currently they are: Jennings (17th), Fitzgerald, Cal Johnson (14th), Santana Moss (28th), B Marshall (15th), A Johnson, Roddy White (27th), Lee Evans (23rd), Wayne, and Berrian (26th). So three of the top 10 WRs and none of the top three are currently in the top 10. Owens is 11th, Moss is 18th and Edwards is 30th.

Tight Ends were slightly more predictable, at least at the top: Pre-season rankings were: Witten, Cooley, Gates, Winslow, Gonzalez, Shockey, V Davis, Clark, Heap and Miller. Current rankings are: Witten, Gates, Daniels (11th), Cooley, Olsen (12th), Gonzalez, Shiancoe (31st), Scheffler (21st), Fasano (30th), and Carlson (18th). So again 5 of the pre-season top 10, but all the top 5.

Kickers: Gostkowski, Vinatieri, Folk, Dawson, Graham, Brown, Bironas, Crosby, Kaeding, Rackers. Current rankings: Longwell (17th), Elam (25th), Carney (NYG - 32nd), Gould (22nd), Nedney (24th), Bryant (23rd), Akers (18th), Kasay (12th), Prater (30th), Crosby (8th). So exactly one of the pre-season top 10 is currently in the top 10 - seemingly by accident. And in fact, only 2 of the pre-season top 16! Who picked that pre-season ranking, the Watchdog?

Defenses: MIN, DAL, SD, CHI, SEA, PIT, IND, JAX, WAS and PHI. Current rankings are: TB (13th), PHI, GB (20th), TEN (12th), CHI, PIT, BAL (16th), NYG (17th), NYJ (28th), and CAR (22nd). So three of the pre-season top 10 are currently ranked in the top 10. MIN is 11, DAL is 25th, SD is 14th.

So at the halfway point, what team did the best job of drafting? Let's look at it in order of the draft picks:

Red Bandits: GB QB in the 2nd round was a good pick, Carolina Kickers for $1 and Jets D in round 12 were good. Tomlinson, Willie Parker, Marques Colston and Wes Welker were underwhelming.

Fatties: Atl QB in round 9 was good, Gore for $50 was good, Turner in R1 was very good, Wayne for $23 was good. Fasano in R11 was very good. Dal kickers for $5 was good and GB D in R6 was very good. Cle QB ($10) was not good. Overall, it's probably that QB position that's killing the Fatties. Other than that, they had a great draft, and as good as Matt Ryan has looked, he's still just a rookie QB.

Wombats: Jets QB $11 and Den QB R3 are very good. None of their RBs drafted have looked good. Fitzgerald, Marshall, and Steve Smith have all been good to great. Crosby has been OK at K, and Carolina D has been good. Their recent trade for MJD will improve their chances, but it's hard to win with half a running back. Spending auction money on four WRs, even four good ones, is a tough proposition, as only two can play.

Pep & Cheez: Carolina and Seattle QBs are,well they're not good (OK, don't sell them short, they're tremenous slouches). S Jackson ($66) has been very good. J Jones (R3) looked good early. Burress ($15) has been OK, the rest of the WRs (J Walker, D Hester and T Ginn) not so much. Winslow has looked good even if he's a cement-head. Kickers (CIN & WAS) have been weak, and Ds (NE and CIN) have been bad.

E-Head: Indy QB ($40) have disappointed, Slaton (R6) has been very good (11th RB currently), Moss ($20) has disappointed but Andre Johnson ($23) has not. Keller (R5) has shown signs of being good. Kickers and Ds have not impressed. Overall, missed on two of the three the big ticket guys, but hit on a couple of long-shots.

Mavs: NE QB ($28) lasted 8 plays, Larry Johnson has been surprisingly good when he hasn't been assaulting anyone, Jonathan Stewart (R2) has been very good. Housh, Coles and Bowe have been pretty good. O Daniels (R4) has been great. Bironas and CHI D ($2) have been good. If Cassel continues to improve, the Mavs will be a team to beat. Currently (5-2) they rank first in "Team Defense", otherwise known as blind-ass-luck, or points against.

BYOB had two fair picks at QB (PHI and PIT for $15 each - OK they're each good, but together they're only fair) and were able to parlay one of those into Thomas Jones. Cal Johnson has been decent, despite having the best Polish QB since Steve Bartkowski throwing to him. B Edwards has been awful, except againt the Giants, but Santana Moss (R3) has been excellent. Cooley and Witten are both top 4, Longwell and Baltimore D are also excellent picks. Trading next year's #1 for Barber solidifies BYOB's position as a top seed in this year's Enchilada.

Turd spent $23 total on Houston and Washington QBs, and they look OK - Schaub has looked very good lately. McGahee ($27), Graham ($25) and Jacobs (R1) have been good to very good. Berrian and Evans have been surprisingly good. Heap (R2) has disappointed. Carney has been a revelation and NYG D has been very good at times. Missed with S Young (a strange keeper) and IND Kicker (particularly since they had the same bye as the Giants K). Overall, a good draft, that could be a playoff team if Schaub or Campbell picks it up.

Dale: Cin QB ($16) has been awful then hurt, leaving an Ivy League guy in there. Eli has been very good against weak opponents so far. Lynch, Lewis and LenDale White have been good. Boldin was doing well til he lost his face in the Jets' game. Jennings (R1) has been outstanding. Scheffler (R8) has been a find. Elam for $1 and TEN D (R9) have been excellent picks. Other than QB and RB, Dale has a top 10 player at every position. Unfortunately, those are kind of important positions.

Semi-R: ARI QB ($16) has been fantastic, Westbrook ($63) has not. Ronnie Brown (R2), Fragile Fred (R3) and Derrick Ward (R9) have been good picks. WRs have all disappointed. Gates ($11) and Olsen R7 have both been excellent. Den K (R12) has been great. No D (SD $8 and Den R11). Trading a TE for a WR might be enough to get them to the Enchilada Bowl. Can't give any leniency for Westbrook getting hurt because he always gets hurt and they did spend $63 for a back who's 5'10" 203 pounds and 29 years old.

Killer Ds: Dal QB ($26) was good until Romo got hurt; Barber $40 was good, Grant ($20) has shown signs lately but disappointed. Chris Johnson (R1) has been good, but shares the ball too much. Crotchery and A Gonzalez have disappointed, but DeSean Jackson (R5) has been very good. Dallas Clark has stunk. Bryant (R9) has been OK at K and Dal and IND D have both been awful. Overall, the WR and TE picks sunk an otherwise decent (but overrated) team.

Gump: Brees ($30) and Rivers (R3) have been excellent. Peterson ($20) too. McFadden ($33) Dunn (R6) and L Washington (R6) have taken up space. Harrison, Ward, and Mason lead a cadre of old, slow receivers. Shockey ($10) has been picked up and cut this year more times in one season than any player in fantasy football history (4,251 times as of last Sunday). A trade of either Brees or Rivers for a WR and/or a back should make Gump a playoff team. They too may regret passing on the Killer D's firesale.

Brokerage: Det QB (R4) and SF QB (R8) were never going to get it done. Addai ($51) has been hurt. MJD ($31) has been OK. Forte (R2) and Sproles (R5) were excellent and very good respectively. Holmes and Chambers were solid but unspectacular picks (R1 and R3). Gonzalez and Shiancoe (R11) were excellent picks, but they didn't keep Shiancoe. They made an excellent trade in picking up Broncos QB for MJD. With Ricky Williams, Forte and Addai, they may have enough to make the Enchilada Bowl now.

And picking last in the draft, the defending champion Sprockets: Stl QB and Jax QB for $7 each have been flat-out awful. Portis ($33) a bargain. Trading Thomas Jones (R1) for PIT QB could save their season and get them back into the playoffs. Edge (R2) and McAlister (R5) were solid picks. Holt ($16) has been bad, but Roddy White (R3) and TO ($20) have been very good. J Brown ($1), Gould (R8) and Pit D ($4) have been very good. I thought Garrard would have been better, but they picked up a very good QB and a potential keeper in Felix Jones in trades. With Reggie Bush hurt, McAllister suddenly becomes relevant again.

So given the rankings' accuracy from pre-season, I'll give you this ranking of the teams' overall drafts at the half-way pole:

1) BYOB and Semi-R tied (I'm as surprised as anyone to find the Draft Dominator at the top of the draft - two good QBs, two good WRs, two good TEs, good K & D for BYOB; Semi-R's WRs prevent them from being #1 by themselves, even with overspending for Westbrook; hit on cheap guys well - ARI QB for $16, and got good starters from rounds 2, 7, 9, 11 and 12)
3) Mavs and Sprockets tied (Portis for $33, White in R3, TO, K & D all excellent picks for Sprockets. Used depth at RB to address QB miss; Mavs hit with LJ and Stewart, got pretty good WR, very good TE, K and D; Cassel compares very well with Brady's first season. Watch out.)
5) Dale's Doormats (other than QB, they've been solid to very good at every position)
6) Fatties (Gore, Turner, Wayne, K and D were all good, but missing on Cle QB hurt)
7) Turd and Ds tied - Turd got good depth at RB, hit on two WR without spending, and got great "special teams". QB keeps them from being higher - right now. Ds missed on Grant and three of four WRs, and all of TE, K and D.
9) Wombats (two good QBs for cheap, over-drafted WRs, but hit on all, trades for RBs will make season)
10) Brokerage (no good QBs, Addai hurt and MJD OK, Forte has been great)
11) Bandits (not bad for only making half the draft - Tomlinson needed to be much better for the price)
12) E-Head (Slaton and A Johnson make up for Manning and Moss' disappointing season, but not the mass dumping of early draft picks)
13) Gump (two good QBs and one good RB, but missed on everything else)
14) Pep & Cheez (no good QB, best player is very good, but for $66 he should be, no one else has impressed)